Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 11°C on March 21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xafdc26128bd6d45cc1cce6b43462f3e28b720fe4ec0568dd5cad5d4db268fb63
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,895
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,526
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,895 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1348…7037backed Yes | 73c | 235.43$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.8 | 176 | 65.9%116 W · 60 L | +12.7wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc8d6…017cbacked Yes | 49c | 171.9$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.1 | 238 | 23.9%57 W · 181 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | +11%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 30c | 166.64$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.99 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x98d9…2c8cbacked Yes | 80c | 138.79$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.9 | 576 | 59%340 W · 236 L | -17.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 55c | 124.04$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.28 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8165…97b8backed Yes | 53c | 118.99$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.39 | 185 | 50.3%93 W · 92 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9868…907ebacked No | 12c | 103.1$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.26 | 346 | 18.8%65 W · 281 L | +15.2wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed No | 22c | 102.38$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.59 | 886 | 28.9%256 W · 630 L | -22.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 12c | 100.58$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x6c9b…994dbacked Yes | 52c | 76.31$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.66 | 166 | 34.9%58 W · 108 L | -6.1wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 19c | 65.15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.07 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 58c | 64.73$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.42 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Yes | 76c | 59.37$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.43 | 249 | 32.9%82 W · 167 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 75c | 58$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.22 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 23c | 54.72$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.33 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 27c | 50.92$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.17 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 49.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8d…a96cbacked Yes | 40c | 49.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.74 | 810 | 29.1%236 W · 574 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 31c | 49.25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.15 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 41c | 47.37$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.49 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 60c | 46.95$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.02 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32f0…c659backed No | 49c | 44.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.04 | 235 | 47.7%112 W · 123 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc498…8ba5backed Yes | 40c | 43.97$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.47 | 424 | 38.9%165 W · 259 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52c6…e00abacked Yes | 70c | 39.99$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.09 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +43.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 51c | 38.4$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.68 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb616…0086backed Yes | 47c | 36$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.23 | 164 | 34.1%56 W · 108 L | +5.6wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x65c4…7ea4backed Yes | 42c | 35.64$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.64 | 559 | 42.6%238 W · 321 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae8f…c820backed Yes | 45c | 33.11$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.11 | 635 | 38.1%242 W · 393 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa96a…1377backed No | 69c | 32.26$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.26 | 541 | 43.6%236 W · 305 L | -12.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8506…2a45backed Yes | 31c | 32.26$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.26 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x266c…4470backed Yes | 75c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.25 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7fe…1e42backed No | 59c | 20.26$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.85 | 344 | 57%196 W · 148 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 55c | 20.11$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.07 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c4d…ee6abacked Yes | 70c | 20.08$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.08 | 76 | 53.9%41 W · 35 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe03a…439fbacked No | 70c | 14.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 189 | 10.6%20 W · 169 L | -87.5wins | -0.46per pick | 57cpaid | -84%equal weight | 5-0.41 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 11°C on March 21?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 10°C on March 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 12°C on March 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 13°C on March 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 14°C or higher on March 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 4°C or below on March 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 5°C on March 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 7°C on March 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 8°C on March 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 9°C on March 21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.