Bundesliga · resolved market
Will 1899 Hoffenheim vs. 1. FC Köln end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb01fbe21afe865a4b099a00b8435b4535048e29a5cef704263f7d910eddb043f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,248
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,181
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,248 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6239…c24fbacked No | 74c | 1,993$1,475 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$518.14 | 95 | 52.6%50 W · 45 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Yes | 26c | 1,818$472 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$472.41 | 339 | 45.7%155 W · 184 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf42a…8470backed Yes | 22c | 901.43$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.12 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee00…cea1backed No | 74c | 887$656 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230.62 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -2.0wins | -0.16per pick | 58cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 78c | 791.01$619 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.96 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0727…ec27backed Yes | 26c | 542.31$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -45.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 72c | 466.19$334 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.89 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x53ab…65aabacked No | 74c | 400$296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 74cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ba…134ebacked Yes | 26c | 384.62$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +3.0wins | +0.15per pick | 30cpaid | +47.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Yes | 6c | 313.15$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.79 | 191 | 53.9%103 W · 88 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Yes | 12c | 299.59$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.37 | 51 | 43.1%22 W · 29 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x06da…3181backed Yes | 28c | 181.25$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ac7…597ebacked Yes | 33c | 174.85$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.7 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked No | 73c | 159.39$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.81 | 238 | 42.9%102 W · 136 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c87…70d5backed Yes | 25c | 151.48$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5adf…a5e7backed Yes | 24c | 149.99$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 32 | 21.9%7 W · 25 L | -2.6wins | -0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2ea8…1fbfbacked No | 71c | 135.68$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.6 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8cb7…04d8backed Yes | 26c | 134.62$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8c76…477abacked Yes | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d22…3aabbacked Yes | 31c | 96.77$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.18per pick | 54cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcc81…0ababacked Yes | 26c | 96.6$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.11per pick | 19cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe550…4ebbbacked Yes | 28c | 89.46$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 126 | 35.7%45 W · 81 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe233…14a3backed Yes | 25c | 80$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -2.1wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xedb1…3fddbacked Yes | 26c | 77.02$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7292…6bd3backed Yes | 29c | 68.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 44cpaid | +31%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4de9…4ab1backed Yes | 29c | 60$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f83…a491backed Yes | 24c | 57.22$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.93 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0464…bdd5backed Yes | 26c | 57.12$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Yes | 26c | 51$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.26 | 282 | 41.5%117 W · 165 L | -7.9wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x87ea…f625backed Yes | 24c | 49.5$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -3.2wins | -0.14per pick | 40cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0cf3…2b57backed Yes | 31c | 48.39$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 43cpaid | -45.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d40…f95abacked Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +1.9wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1b90…710fbacked No | 76c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf2e…ddecbacked No | 74c | 14.42$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.75 | 90 | 53.3%48 W · 42 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will 1899 Hoffenheim vs. 1. FC Köln end in a draw?this page
- Will 1. FC Köln win on 2025-10-03?Yes won
- Will 1899 Hoffenheim win on 2025-10-03?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.