TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Bundesliga · resolved market

Will 1899 Hoffenheim win on 2025-10-03?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$87,526
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$90,931

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $87,526 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 96 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x204f…5e14backed No54c19,993$10,830 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,162.53,28442.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L-74.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-18.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb230…4193backed No50c15,000$7,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,5005954.2%32 W · 27 L+1.7wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+7.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Yes50c14,241$7,121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,120.533945.7%155 W · 184 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7412…0ccbbacked Yes50c10,086$5,041 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,040.691060%6 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.06per pick54cpaid-1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9158…fa7bbacked Yes49c6,705$3,285 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,285.482941.4%12 W · 17 L-2.0wins-0.07per pick48cpaid-15.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb8c4…7385backed Yes50c5,000$2,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,50015742%66 W · 91 L+4.7wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+0.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc8b4…f05dbacked No50c5,000$2,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,5005052%26 W · 24 L+2.6wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+3.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb1fe…9974backed Yes51c3,908$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,0008637.2%32 W · 54 L-4.0wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-18.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc996…bb65backed Yes18c2,977$550 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$550.255347.2%25 W · 28 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-16.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1867…92cabacked No49c2,600$1,274 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,325.958752.9%46 W · 41 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb3e8…6e04backed Yes50c2,219$1,121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,120.510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd589…27c2backed Yes50c2,000$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00020%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8fec…5b6fbacked No50c2,000$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,0001100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Yes50c1,800$900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90028241.5%117 W · 165 L-7.9wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-16.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x50d3…af3ebacked No50c1,800$900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9001100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x826d…9947backed Yes51c1,800$918 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91810%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfd2f…37ddbacked No49c1,776$870 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$906.016543.1%28 W · 37 L+2.9wins+0.04per pick39cpaid+8.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6239…c24fbacked No48c1,735$835 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$900.699552.6%50 W · 45 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-10.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8fe7…4f20backed No50c1,499$754 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$744.512651.6%65 W · 61 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-10.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5351…9b3cbacked No49c1,416$694 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$722.412948.3%14 W · 15 L-1.1wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-6.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2ea8…1fbfbacked Yes22c1,412$309 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$309.212646.2%12 W · 14 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-31.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6b7c…5f83backed Yes20c1,018$209 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$208.635143.1%22 W · 29 L0.0wins0.00per pick43cpaid-24.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf68a…625dbacked Yes44c1,000$436 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$436.256639.4%26 W · 40 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick37cpaid-10%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdfc1…818dbacked Yes50c1,000$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5003644.4%16 W · 20 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe5f4…55c1backed Yes12c949.94$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.1910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xf42a…8470backed Yes26c887.99$234 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$234.211822.2%4 W · 14 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick20cpaid+7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe671…a682backed Yes51c777$396 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$396.2715847.5%75 W · 83 L+10.5wins+0.07per pick41cpaid+18.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x1464…5e75backed Yes51c700$357 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3571546.7%7 W · 8 L0.0wins0.00per pick47cpaid-15.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xad18…0b4fbacked No51c695.29$355 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$340.693145.2%14 W · 17 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeab6…d4c6backed Yes49c551$271 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$270.978630.2%26 W · 60 L-2.1wins-0.02per pick33cpaid-23.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x10b0…8525backed No50c500$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25016850%84 W · 84 L-0.6wins0.00per pick50cpaid+3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x71c1…e358backed Yes31c483.87$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15018840.4%76 W · 112 L+7.9wins+0.04per pick36cpaid+10.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x908a…ad16backed No62c409.73$255 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$154.7851136.8%188 W · 323 L-28.0wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-24.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xee00…cea1backed No50c407.21$204 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$203.61241.7%5 W · 7 L-2.0wins-0.16per pick58cpaid-36.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7c85…77c6backed Yes50c400$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2008459.5%50 W · 34 L+2.9wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+3.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc922…2618backed No50c400$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2009048.9%44 W · 46 L-2.3wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x663b…6a3ebacked Yes50c396.8$198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$198.4250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+8.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x29c0…efaabacked Yes50c386.28$193 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$193.1419347.2%91 W · 102 L-0.5wins0.00per pick47cpaid-10.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb853…0d33backed No53c377.36$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$177.362352.2%12 W · 11 L+1.9wins+0.08per pick44cpaid+23.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x13cb…4d95backed Yes16c350$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5610%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3993…cdedbacked No50c331.94$166 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$165.971163.6%7 W · 4 L+2.2wins+0.20per pick43cpaid+44.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5e10…70f4backed No54c305.83$166 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$139.749053.3%48 W · 42 L+2.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid-2.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xce2b…08fabacked Yes50c300$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15038055.8%212 W · 168 L-0.9wins0.00per pick56cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5d03…369abacked No49c300$147 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1532365.2%15 W · 8 L+2.7wins+0.12per pick54cpaid+17.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xd410…3a1bbacked No49c300$147 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1534645.7%21 W · 25 L-2.3wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-14.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf575…e0ebbacked Yes50c298.68$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149.342544%11 W · 14 L+1.8wins+0.07per pick37cpaid+19.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8191…8a35backed Yes50c257.91$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.962737%10 W · 17 L+1.1wins+0.04per pick33cpaid+53.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe5cf…c348backed Yes50c252$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125.141844.4%8 W · 10 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-9.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2129…4222backed No50c241.8$121 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$120.919153.9%103 W · 88 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x06da…3181backed Yes50c200.31$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001560%9 W · 6 L+1.0wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+10.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0e0c…b90abacked Yes49c200$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$985149%25 W · 26 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+0.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7272…7135backed Yes28c199.99$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.51637.5%6 W · 10 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-28.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7292…6bd3backed No51c196.08$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.08366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.23per pick44cpaid+31%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3fb5…6530backed Yes51c176.47$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$902360.9%14 W · 9 L+1.1wins+0.05per pick56cpaid+6.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Yes17c174.09$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.272,53839.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L-8.1wins0.00per pick40cpaid-11.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbb5a…f4c1backed Yes50c158.35$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.18757.1%4 W · 3 L+1.2wins+0.17per pick40cpaid+53.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x98e0…bf01backed No67c151.78$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.37862.5%5 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.09per pick71cpaid-15.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x778c…dbedbacked Yes52c123.08$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick61cpaid-28.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x433f…a0dcbacked Yes26c104.61$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.2520%1 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick25cpaid-11.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1a51…4cc0backed Yes32c103.13$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$333339.4%13 W · 20 L+1.9wins+0.06per pick34cpaid+25.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4b9e…4580backed Yes25c100$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$252245.5%10 W · 12 L-2.0wins-0.09per pick55cpaid-16.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xdbf6…513abacked No49c100$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$512454.2%13 W · 11 L+1.4wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+2.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf32a…b9a4backed Yes52c100$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52560%3 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick65cpaid-17.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3fe8…1fd3backed Yes25c100$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$259621.9%21 W · 75 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick20cpaid+12.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8b7e…6a9fbacked No51c98.04$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.043151.6%16 W · 15 L-0.1wins0.00per pick52cpaid-3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5adf…a5e7backed Yes49c98.04$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.043221.9%7 W · 25 L-2.6wins-0.08per pick30cpaid-36.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0362…449ebacked Yes50c80$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4013555.6%75 W · 60 L+3.1wins+0.02per pick53cpaid-3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3486…49eebacked Yes51c78.43$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4019943.2%86 W · 113 L-0.2wins0.00per pick43cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2359…f72bbacked No72c75$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.4wins+0.20per pick52cpaid+33.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7d24…a93fbacked No71c71$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.598870.5%62 W · 26 L+1.6wins+0.02per pick69cpaid+1.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7d81…259bbacked Yes23c70.37$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.52560%3 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-15.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3d4f…3e05backed Yes52c57.69$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.28per pick61cpaid-53.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x742f…d673backed Yes46c50$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$239846.9%46 W · 52 L-5.7wins-0.06per pick53cpaid-18.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x7f83…a491backed No50c50$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$251643.8%7 W · 9 L0.0wins0.00per pick44cpaid-2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd8fe…ba40backed Yes51c50$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.53545.7%16 W · 19 L-2.5wins-0.07per pick53cpaid-19.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3602…b407backed Yes50c49.99$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$252050%10 W · 10 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-9.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcfdb…7a75backed Yes51c49.02$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25540%2 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.20per pick60cpaid-39.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xdc5b…f102backed No50c48.8$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.44376.7%33 W · 10 L+5.3wins+0.12per pick64cpaid+20.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x7cba…c616backed No75c45.33$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.33862.5%5 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.12per pick75cpaid-16.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4eff…8490backed Yes37c45.1$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.5610%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1ec4…defabacked Yes51c44$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.441127.3%3 W · 8 L-1.3wins-0.12per pick39cpaid-39.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x05b0…e8fcbacked Yes51c41.18$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2110%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc48d…8a40backed Yes52c40$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.82161.9%13 W · 8 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick58cpaid-0.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5ee5…1765backed No79c40$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.41100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6a3a…d4d5backed Yes51c39.22$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1357…4fd4backed No75c34.67$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.671100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x26ae…97b8backed No49c30.99$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.87466.2%49 W · 25 L+5.1wins+0.07per pick59cpaid+12.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x881a…8d6dbacked No72c27.78$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.784070%28 W · 12 L+2.3wins+0.06per pick64cpaid+5.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa664…6bb0backed No78c25.64$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.641100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7f5d…d671backed Yes51c25.49$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1310%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x392a…6bbabacked Yes52c23.08$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+14.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc0a6…2ab9backed Yes52c22.94$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.931163.6%7 W · 4 L+1.2wins+0.11per pick53cpaid+33%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x02ac…33b2backed No50c20.98$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.492100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+72.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc360…e9babacked Yes51c20.76$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.5920%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdc4b…5a92backed No50c20$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104751.1%24 W · 23 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-5.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1fbb…1794backed Yes50c20$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.