Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C on February 26?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb05bba83e8664140ad0b04274609d230e480db565c42bdae2a227c3e3c491636
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,222
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,056
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,222 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb15c…c161backed Yes | 1c | 1,120$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.53 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.11per pick | 42cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe170…3c0bbacked No | 73c | 578.6$424 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.26 | 79 | 50.6%40 W · 39 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d8…0c8cbacked Yes | 6c | 545$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.1 | 169 | 24.3%41 W · 128 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed Yes | 26c | 244$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.39 | 468 | 24.4%114 W · 354 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffd3…e0a2backed Yes | 50c | 202.51$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.20per pick | 40cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed No | 71c | 199.99$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.75 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 8c | 199.98$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4914…722ebacked Yes | 44c | 173.7$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.19 | 54 | 29.6%16 W · 38 L | -4.4wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 19c | 149.99$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 1,242 | 16.7%207 W · 1,035 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e5c…d892backed Yes | 15c | 147.84$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.18 | 570 | 44.9%256 W · 314 L | +36.5wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +13%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 25c | 125$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.25 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…3de8backed Yes | 29c | 105.81$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.88 | 685 | 21.5%147 W · 538 L | +12.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 28c | 104.98$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.42 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed No | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 44c | 100$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47af…3999backed No | 56c | 90.08$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.63 | 326 | 52.1%170 W · 156 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 28c | 89.3$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.43 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xd8b9…3296backed Yes | 41c | 86.51$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.1 | 111 | 29.7%33 W · 78 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x726c…e6f0backed No | 55c | 85.79$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.6 | 79 | 36.7%29 W · 50 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb261…a612backed Yes | 42c | 83.14$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.85 | 105 | 42.9%45 W · 60 L | -9.9wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…37a6backed Yes | 37c | 82.17$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 409 | 35%143 W · 266 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b22…8945backed No | 63c | 80.01$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.99 | 253 | 41.5%105 W · 148 L | -13.3wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1600…9236backed Yes | 24c | 73.39$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.61 | 354 | 32.5%115 W · 239 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 44c | 72.86$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.83 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 58c | 69.49$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.03 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 58c | 65.98$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.8 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45b1…fa5fbacked Yes | 27c | 61.65$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 72 | 29.2%21 W · 51 L | +3.7wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | +47.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…2a57backed Yes | 26c | 60$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.17per pick | 47cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc2bf…5892backed Yes | 34c | 59.75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.32 | 72 | 33.3%24 W · 48 L | +3.5wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x68db…44f0backed No | 73c | 59.4$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 191 | 48.2%92 W · 99 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a3…b156backed Yes | 44c | 57.29$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd98d…1179backed Yes | 26c | 54$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 232 | 31%72 W · 160 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7bb8…89b9backed Yes | 27c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +1.7wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +23%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xebb1…e7afbacked No | 70c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.1 | 575 | 45%259 W · 316 L | +26.6wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x536d…3152backed No | 53c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.5 | 120 | 73.3%88 W · 32 L | +9.4wins | +0.08per pick | 65cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 37c | 46.7$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.2 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39b7…675cbacked No | 72c | 45$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 64cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1672…03f1backed Yes | 28c | 36.83$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.31 | 56 | 35.7%20 W · 36 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa96a…1377backed No | 59c | 33.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 541 | 43.6%236 W · 305 L | -12.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52f2…5a5dbacked Yes | 42c | 32.57$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.52 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4aa1…596cbacked Yes | 41c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 214 | 48.6%104 W · 110 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9584…9306backed Yes | 39c | 28$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x514f…2be0backed No | 74c | 26.7$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 51 | 51%26 W · 25 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41fa…7cc4backed Yes | 42c | 26.13$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 792 | 55.2%437 W · 355 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd45…c05ebacked No | 60c | 19.14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.64 | 36 | 58.3%21 W · 15 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C on February 26?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 13°C or below on February 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 14°C on February 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 15°C on February 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 16°C on February 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 17°C on February 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on February 26?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 20°C on February 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 21°C or higher on February 26?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.