Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 35°C on July 3?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb078317c3a136895c653bf2175c9184c3b7848375661571e5ea3b467b4eed439
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,019
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,826
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,019 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 48c | 209.3$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.59 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 5c | 205.87$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.69 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf045…c619backed Yes | 44c | 181.1$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 180 | 35.6%64 W · 116 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 56c | 150.86$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.39 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd119…ebddbacked No | 60c | 149.99$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.73 | 40 | 97.5%39 W · 1 L | +16.9wins | +0.42per pick | 55cpaid | +112.4%equal weight | 79+0.26 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 54c | 136.38$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.9 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 53c | 130.65$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.19 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 56c | 108.02$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.17 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb46…56e7backed Yes | 50c | 99.48$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.5 | 421 | 48%202 W · 219 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 57c | 91.83$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.76 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 63c | 86.37$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.9 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 37c | 65$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.05 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 62c | 62.61$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6282…aaabbacked Yes | 37c | 54.05$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 421 | 51.8%218 W · 203 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5647…de1dbacked Yes | 46c | 43.89$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 479 | 35.3%169 W · 310 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 43c | 41$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.43 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 34c | 40.93$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1,122 | 24.4%274 W · 848 L | +24.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf92…150fbacked Yes | 47c | 40$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.72 | 164 | 40.2%66 W · 98 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 51c | 39.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.39 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 41c | 35.09$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.62 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a36…f270backed Yes | 29c | 35$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 48 | 25%12 W · 36 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 55c | 31.75$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.29 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 55c | 26.3$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.72 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b8f…e17ebacked No | 60c | 23.7$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 272 | 48.9%133 W · 139 L | -10.1wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed No | 51c | 23.7$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.68 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 51c | 23.66$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.66 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d60…a7a5backed No | 64c | 19.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 425 | 55.1%234 W · 191 L | +13.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaef6…eaa7backed Yes | 56c | 19.1$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.7 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +19%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 56c | 18.55$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.16 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 35°C on July 3?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 33°C on July 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 34°C on July 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 36°C on July 3?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on July 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 38°C or higher on July 3?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.