NFL · resolved market
Spread: Bengals (-3.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb08ccf8f2475c90cdc6ccfbfc95a193fb3f1d261f44bdca53b63ace1c4c0ae73
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Bengalsof Bengals, Jaguars
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,035
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,035
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,035 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x067f…e041backed Jaguars | 51c | 2,334$1,190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,190.49 | 184 | 35.9%66 W · 118 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7ca…a175backed Jaguars | 52c | 2,077$1,080 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,080 | 257 | 44.4%114 W · 143 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Bengals | 48c | 2,077$997 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,080 | 831 | 47.8%397 W · 434 L | +13.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ac1…45dbbacked Bengals | 49c | 1,020$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$520.41 | 77 | 54.5%42 W · 35 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Bengals | 49c | 596$292 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$303.96 | 446 | 52.9%236 W · 210 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41b7…f6babacked Bengals | 49c | 500$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255 | 297 | 51.5%153 W · 144 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dff…2a13backed Bengals | 49c | 210.61$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.61 | 26 | 61.5%16 W · 10 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b80…657fbacked Jaguars | 51c | 203.99$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.04 | 157 | 46.5%73 W · 84 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ec4…defabacked Bengals | 48c | 130$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.1 | 205 | 42%86 W · 119 L | +7.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +35.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1db1…35a9backed Jaguars | 52c | 100$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 55 | 36.4%20 W · 35 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb7…e33dbacked Bengals | 48c | 78.96$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.4 | 418 | 51.9%217 W · 201 L | +13.1wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x96bf…ba22backed Bengals | 49c | 55.1$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.1 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x156f…6887backed Jaguars | 52c | 45$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.4 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -1.8wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0078…bca0backed Bengals | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.82 | 227 | 45.4%103 W · 124 L | -7.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Jaguars | 51c | 40.41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.41 | 611 | 48.6%297 W · 314 L | +10.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17e0…1e88backed Bengals | 49c | 39.02$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.9 | 145 | 37.2%54 W · 91 L | -5.1wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0aaa…8212backed Bengals | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Bengals (-3.5)this page
- Jaguars vs. BengalsBengals won
- Jaguars vs. Bengals: O/U 49.5Over won
- Jaguars vs. Bengals: O/U 50.5Over won
- Spread: Bengals (-1.5)Bengals won
- Spread: Bengals (-2.5)Bengals won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.