South American Leagues · resolved market
Spread: CA River Plate (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb091faa8a7de70e0009557977b5fdf30fb609d0430bf1f8bdafe3bfda9ab75d9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- CA River Plateof CA River Plate, Club Blooming
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,976
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,999
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,976 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdb85…152fbacked Club Blooming | 49c | 6,077$3,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,000 | 69 | 44.9%31 W · 38 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked CA River Plate | 50c | 3,373$1,687 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,686.52 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c4…7385backed Club Blooming | 49c | 3,008$1,484 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,483.76 | 166 | 47%78 W · 88 L | +11.8wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked CA River Plate | 51c | 1,676$856 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$820.11 | 1,668 | 51.7%863 W · 805 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c84…a8edbacked CA River Plate | 51c | 1,250$642 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$608 | 170 | 49.4%84 W · 86 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf421…cff4backed CA River Plate | 52c | 961.54$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$461.54 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe0a2…40d5backed CA River Plate | 52c | 518.69$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$248.91 | 83 | 51.8%43 W · 40 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf33e…0ab8backed CA River Plate | 51c | 500$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | -3.2wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed CA River Plate | 51c | 471.59$243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$228.74 | 1,944 | 51.3%998 W · 946 L | +40.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed CA River Plate | 52c | 357.48$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.47 | 3,749 | 38.2%1,431 W · 2,318 L | -33.3wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf003…08cdbacked CA River Plate | 53c | 283.02$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.02 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed CA River Plate | 50c | 250$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125 | 1,651 | 50.6%836 W · 815 L | -4.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked CA River Plate | 53c | 175.76$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.61 | 416 | 54.3%226 W · 190 L | +11.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked CA River Plate | 51c | 133$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.17 | 1,355 | 49.7%674 W · 681 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed CA River Plate | 51c | 130.33$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.22 | 2,335 | 51.5%1,202 W · 1,133 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1edb…a60bbacked CA River Plate | 54c | 120.37$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.37 | 54 | 48.1%26 W · 28 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b5a…39e0backed CA River Plate | 15c | 113.07$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.84 | 29 | 69%20 W · 9 L | +8.0wins | +0.28per pick | 41cpaid | +95.5%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x4d94…541abacked CA River Plate | 53c | 94.34$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.34 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84fd…2f81backed Club Blooming | 48c | 79.99$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.4 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Club Blooming | 47c | 78$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.02 | 2,514 | 39%980 W · 1,534 L | -32.2wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6553…7a71backed CA River Plate | 53c | 76.54$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.99 | 115 | 51.3%59 W · 56 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e4e…1dfcbacked CA River Plate | 53c | 75.47$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.47 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x234b…f36dbacked Club Blooming | 47c | 69.44$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.64 | 332 | 66.3%220 W · 112 L | +24.8wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x435d…c52abacked CA River Plate | 50c | 59.63$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.82 | 98 | 26.5%26 W · 72 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9b…e74abacked CA River Plate | 53c | 56.6$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.6 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb1b…69f2backed CA River Plate | 52c | 50.13$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.25 | 235 | 49.4%116 W · 119 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x443b…e8bbbacked Club Blooming | 48c | 49.96$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 72 | 44.4%32 W · 40 L | -3.4wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b2a…0a73backed CA River Plate | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.46 | 52 | 51.9%27 W · 25 L | +4.0wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | +35%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x86a0…bb4ebacked CA River Plate | 55c | 36.65$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.65 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x31d6…b5c9backed CA River Plate | 54c | 36.28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.69 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 44cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaedd…ad5bbacked Club Blooming | 47c | 25.28$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 286 | 65%186 W · 100 L | +9.0wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x14b2…e75fbacked Club Blooming | 80c | 13.5$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 73cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: CA River Plate (-2.5)this page
- CA River Plate vs. Club Blooming: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- CA River Plate vs. Club Blooming: O/U 0.5Over won
- CA River Plate vs. Club Blooming: O/U 1.5Over won
- CA River Plate vs. Club Blooming: O/U 2.5Over won
- CA River Plate vs. Club Blooming: O/U 3.5Under won
- CA River Plate vs. Club Blooming: O/U 4.5Under won
- CA River Plate vs. Club Blooming: O/U 5.5Under won
- Spread: CA River Plate (-1.5)CA River Plate won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.