Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on May 8?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb0cc0ce438c13f474f63920c27fe15300a9e3ddcbbc57d9ef35c215a3eaed87f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,822
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,156
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,822 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xae2e…40adbacked No | 65c | 312.99$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.06 | 295 | 20.7%61 W · 234 L | +7.8wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf56c…ad84backed Yes | 4c | 300$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 507 | 3.4%17 W · 490 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 43c | 273.19$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.16 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bac…cf49backed Yes | 59c | 199.91$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.15 | 1,089 | 29.7%323 W · 766 L | +36.6wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d02…704cbacked Yes | 29c | 161.76$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.29 | 321 | 32.7%105 W · 216 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 39c | 148.56$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.45 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60d8…f2a6backed Yes | 36c | 143.16$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.4 | 378 | 35.4%134 W · 244 L | +10.5wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 11c | 136.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.78 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 72c | 134$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.39 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 57c | 95.12$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.57 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 32c | 89.98$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.99 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 59c | 88.36$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.79 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 36c | 88$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.9 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7554…0b84backed Yes | 36c | 84$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 140 | 40.7%57 W · 83 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 72c | 81.18$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.73 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 61c | 79.01$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.96 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef2e…10c3backed Yes | 67c | 72$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.24 | 402 | 42.5%171 W · 231 L | -12.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 66c | 65$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.4 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x87cc…da77backed Yes | 42c | 61.96$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.2 | 40 | 65%26 W · 14 L | +4.5wins | +0.11per pick | 54cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa735…d7c9backed No | 67c | 57.99$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.14 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x354d…eb8fbacked Yes | 52c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 701 | 33.5%235 W · 466 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8b7…81f4backed No | 67c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +2.1wins | +0.26per pick | 49cpaid | +45.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 61c | 49$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.11 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8f0…835cbacked Yes | 41c | 48.37$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 109 | 37.6%41 W · 68 L | -9.6wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked Yes | 28c | 47.32$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.08 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3eb…b529backed Yes | 41c | 45.72$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.94 | 616 | 29.4%181 W · 435 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7e…3facbacked Yes | 33c | 41$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.53 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 62c | 40$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.2 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 64c | 39.63$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.32 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85c8…80f8backed No | 62c | 39.29$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.89 | 391 | 58.1%227 W · 164 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed No | 73c | 38.51$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.21 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2656…a5b8backed Yes | 39c | 37.09$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.53 | 75 | 24%18 W · 57 L | -3.6wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc0…317bbacked Yes | 33c | 36$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbfc…31b1backed Yes | 32c | 34.91$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.17 | 128 | 29.7%38 W · 90 L | +7.1wins | +0.06per pick | 24cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc690…5231backed Yes | 36c | 33.13$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.93 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.18per pick | 30cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb70d…253abacked Yes | 36c | 32.91$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.99 | 151 | 52.3%79 W · 72 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…0ab5backed Yes | 39c | 32.14$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 268 | 34%91 W · 177 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d58…17a9backed No | 73c | 32$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.64 | 165 | 30.9%51 W · 114 L | +10.0wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 61c | 31.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.48 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41b5…0509backed Yes | 33c | 30.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.23 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.26per pick | 46cpaid | -67.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 68c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 65c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.7 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked No | 41c | 29.4$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.22 | 584 | 22.8%133 W · 451 L | -26.5wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 53c | 28.53$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.98 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52d7…0ff9backed No | 69c | 23$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.19 | 382 | 58.9%225 W · 157 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75fd…e4f9backed Yes | 50c | 22.76$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.32 | 41 | 22%9 W · 32 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e4b…ac6bbacked No | 66c | 21$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.22 | 358 | 54.7%196 W · 162 L | -13.7wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1632…ad5abacked No | 61c | 19.7$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.72 | 502 | 61%306 W · 196 L | -17.9wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6409…9411backed No | 68c | 19.19$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.19 | 825 | 62.2%513 W · 312 L | -23.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on May 8?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on May 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on May 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on May 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on May 8?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C or higher on May 8?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.