South American Leagues · resolved market
Will AA Estudiantes vs. CA San Lorenzo de Almagro end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb14837d93b9ee39bc4e7cd473cce2e5e6ea3720d98bb4464aa88bf678aa942bd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $41,842
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $49,436
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $41,842 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0e5c…ab50backed No | 8c | 10,615$810 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$809.67 | 68 | 27.9%19 W · 49 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed No | 42c | 7,494$3,149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,149.45 | 2,281 | 34.3%782 W · 1,499 L | -30.5wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Yes | 51c | 4,425$2,240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,185.11 | 2,514 | 39%980 W · 1,534 L | -32.2wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 3c | 2,846$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.28 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 61c | 2,154$1,319 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$835.12 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed No | 50c | 1,213$601 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$601.46 | 1,290 | 42.8%552 W · 738 L | -2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Yes | 73c | 1,209$878 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$330.43 | 289 | 40.1%116 W · 173 L | -6.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3740…a935backed Yes | 75c | 700$525 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175 | 103 | 64.1%66 W · 37 L | -4.8wins | -0.05per pick | 69cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f4c…9f7dbacked No | 54c | 679.61$367 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$366.94 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9cda…1397backed Yes | 75c | 400$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 66 | 42.4%28 W · 38 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…01e5backed Yes | 46c | 217.39$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.39 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39f9…fcc3backed No | 44c | 160.95$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.07 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | -5.2wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4d91…cdebbacked No | 17c | 130$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +3.4wins | +0.22per pick | 24cpaid | +72.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed No | 29c | 126.7$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.3 | 1,366 | 52.4%716 W · 650 L | +51.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbe3c…a835backed No | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 146 | 54.1%79 W · 67 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 27c | 97.92$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.82 | 852 | 20.7%176 W · 676 L | -85.2wins | -0.10per pick | 31cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x24ce…da46backed Yes | 50c | 91.93$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.11 | 164 | 49.4%81 W · 83 L | -4.3wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9028…8608backed Yes | 62c | 79.67$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.04 | 601 | 56.2%338 W · 263 L | +10.4wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Yes | 62c | 79.67$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.09 | 951 | 55.8%531 W · 420 L | +31.5wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3654…1b78backed Yes | 62c | 66$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.88 | 412 | 62.1%256 W · 156 L | +13.7wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x544f…3ca1backed Yes | 35c | 57.14$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.14 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | +6.6wins | +0.22per pick | 35cpaid | +67.5%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked No | 67c | 53.33$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.83 | 898 | 46.1%414 W · 484 L | -11.8wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed No | 65c | 52.14$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.89 | 1,651 | 50.6%836 W · 815 L | -4.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked No | 33c | 51.09$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.09 | 896 | 45.4%407 W · 489 L | -23.0wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7ab…16d0backed No | 43c | 40.7$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 83 | 47%39 W · 44 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Yes | 62c | 32.6$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.31 | 630 | 61.3%386 W · 244 L | +22.3wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ed3…274cbacked Yes | 62c | 22.15$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.35 | 90 | 56.7%51 W · 39 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Yes | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 235 | 51.5%121 W · 114 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x882c…5d07backed Yes | 77c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.5 | 352 | 40.3%142 W · 210 L | -28.0wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2bde…ecbabacked Yes | 70c | 14.6$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.43 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.14per pick | 66cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will AA Estudiantes vs. CA San Lorenzo de Almagro end in a draw?this page
- Will AA Estudiantes win on 2026-08-21?No won
- Will CA San Lorenzo de Almagro win on 2026-08-21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.