South American Leagues · resolved market
Will AA Estudiantes win on 2026-08-21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6253983e2defa137e6256c5fefe15604dad7979d60b32516ae5d3fe2fe8fba71
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,270
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,853
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,270 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Yes | 15c | 3,336$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500.38 | 2,281 | 34.3%782 W · 1,499 L | -30.5wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed No | 80c | 3,206$2,562 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$643.96 | 2,514 | 39%980 W · 1,534 L | -32.2wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed No | 75c | 2,786$2,081 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$705 | 347 | 47.6%165 W · 182 L | +17.7wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Yes | 20c | 2,505$505 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$504.76 | 1,290 | 42.8%552 W · 738 L | -2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x71d6…7248backed Yes | 25c | 1,044$261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$261.07 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Yes | 26c | 732.58$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.47 | 668 | 37.1%248 W · 420 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed No | 74c | 639.42$473 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.25 | 3,749 | 38.2%1,431 W · 2,318 L | -33.3wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24bf…b006backed No | 75c | 305.79$229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.45 | 78 | 56.4%44 W · 34 L | +5.9wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9cda…1397backed Yes | 28c | 285.71$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 66 | 42.4%28 W · 38 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8709…7d3dbacked Yes | 29c | 202.41$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.75 | 45 | 42.2%19 W · 26 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f2…8c8dbacked Yes | 22c | 164.6$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.06 | 245 | 35.5%87 W · 158 L | -13.9wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x50ab…144bbacked Yes | 27c | 129.63$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +1.5wins | +0.12per pick | 21cpaid | +76.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe904…44e9backed Yes | 25c | 118.32$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.58 | 182 | 47.8%87 W · 95 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a72…c2a0backed Yes | 25c | 110.09$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.25 | 302 | 31.1%94 W · 208 L | +10.5wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 71c | 102.29$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.66 | 824 | 34.5%284 W · 540 L | -17.8wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -32%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Yes | 25c | 95.43$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 3,405 | 51.3%1,748 W · 1,657 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Yes | 23c | 68.9$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.85 | 1,253 | 56.2%704 W · 549 L | +73.3wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Yes | 23c | 56.33$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.96 | 289 | 40.1%116 W · 173 L | -6.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24ce…da46backed No | 79c | 52.87$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 164 | 49.4%81 W · 83 L | -4.3wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0dff…bb1ebacked Yes | 31c | 46.23$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.33 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x860d…6071backed No | 73c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 70cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc036…30d4backed No | 76c | 39.47$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.47 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | -3.9wins | -0.14per pick | 62cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed No | 74c | 25.27$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.57 | 2,611 | 54.2%1,415 W · 1,196 L | +25.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed No | 69c | 24$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.44 | 2,335 | 51.5%1,202 W · 1,133 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed No | 69c | 22.23$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.89 | 1,651 | 50.6%836 W · 815 L | -4.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b18…dd26backed No | 75c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.75 | 73 | 50.7%37 W · 36 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will AA Estudiantes win on 2026-08-21?this page
- Will AA Estudiantes vs. CA San Lorenzo de Almagro end in a draw?Yes won
- Will CA San Lorenzo de Almagro win on 2026-08-21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.