Asian League · resolved market
Will Liaoning Tieren FC vs. Beijing Guoan FC end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb159a6af0057272227884809c2d6c82e3329963964336405459633f1fabf9c3d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,413
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,206
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,413 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet's whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x08ce…f301backed Yes | 15c | 1,249$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.73 | 47 | 29.8%14 W · 33 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26f8…3452backed No | 76c | 1,171$890 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$281.04 | 22 | 86.4%19 W · 3 L | +6.7wins | +0.30per pick | 56cpaid | +86.2%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xa0dc…586cbacked Yes | 26c | 677.78$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175 | 145 | 37.2%54 W · 91 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 12c | 504.73$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.94 | 6,028 | 46.1%2,778 W · 3,250 L | +50.9wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9902…34b3backed Yes | 12c | 372.62$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.41 | 47 | 6.4%3 W · 44 L | -5.6wins | -0.12per pick | 18cpaid | -71.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Yes | 15c | 323.01$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.66 | 2,612 | 37.8%988 W · 1,624 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ad1…4852backed No | 75c | 313.89$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.47 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x994c…2d29backed Yes | 25c | 313.89$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.47 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 22cpaid | +163.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7681…ac03backed Yes | 12c | 299.96$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.99 | 88 | 14.8%13 W · 75 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -47%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Yes | 26c | 262$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.39 | 490 | 44.3%217 W · 273 L | -9.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 75c | 242.21$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.86 | 899 | 55.1%495 W · 404 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd82a…5fcfbacked Yes | 25c | 199.96$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.99 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1dcc…c9a8backed No | 77c | 193.86$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.59 | 10 | 90%9 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.12per pick | 78cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7106…1caabacked Yes | 28c | 178.57$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 69 | 24.6%17 W · 52 L | -6.4wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed Yes | 20c | 84.37$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.06 | 738 | 50.3%371 W · 367 L | -2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Yes | 25c | 64$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 540 | 48.7%263 W · 277 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x370e…5df3backed No | 78c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 233 | 47.6%111 W · 122 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dfb…ebbfbacked Yes | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 235 | 46.8%110 W · 125 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4512…5d41backed Yes | 28c | 48.25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.51 | 88 | 36.4%32 W · 56 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9bc6…6c9fbacked Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 76c | 37.66$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.95 | 1,098 | 43.8%481 W · 617 L | -14.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed No | 78c | 28.74$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.39 | 841 | 53.6%451 W · 390 L | +23.9wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3dda…8799backed No | 75c | 26.58$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.58 | 27 | 70.4%19 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x94d4…18f9backed No | 79c | 23.49$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.87 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0bec…c707backed No | 77c | 20.52$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.81 | 39 | 64.1%25 W · 14 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x63c3…a7fdbacked No | 76c | 19.64$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.64 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.21per pick | 64cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc9b7…93ebbacked No | 75c | 19.15$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.79 | 43 | 62.8%27 W · 16 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36cb…5bb7backed No | 75c | 18.68$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.67 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 70cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ba…c5d8backed No | 75c | 17.31$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.33 | 139 | 51.1%71 W · 68 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ff2…cf14backed No | 76c | 14.09$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.38 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Liaoning Tieren FC vs. Beijing Guoan FC end in a draw?this page
- Will Beijing Guoan FC win on 2026-04-04?No won
- Will Liaoning Tieren FC win on 2026-04-04?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
- The position was at least $10.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.