Asian League · resolved market
Will Beijing Guoan FC win on 2026-04-04?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x27a4ce80914245541966ea28b2e2cd32a6dffd40d68206232a2ca2a8240c339a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,761
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,933
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,761 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 2c | 7,996$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.33 | 5,946 | 46.1%2,743 W · 3,203 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 62c | 1,854$1,144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$709.75 | 1,254 | 51.4%644 W · 610 L | +9.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x981c…306fbacked Yes | 40c | 1,581$640 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$640 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x08ce…f301backed Yes | 20c | 1,249$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246.11 | 47 | 29.8%14 W · 33 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9902…34b3backed Yes | 4c | 794.3$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.05 | 47 | 6.4%3 W · 44 L | -5.6wins | -0.12per pick | 18cpaid | -71.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6006…13afbacked Yes | 43c | 465.28$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +1.6wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 10c | 408.78$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.37 | 2,522 | 42.3%1,067 W · 1,455 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed5d…2668backed Yes | 20c | 402.3$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 54 | 46.3%25 W · 29 L | +4.4wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Yes | 4c | 358.75$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.02 | 2,424 | 38%920 W · 1,504 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e1…8276backed Yes | 46c | 341.13$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.86 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3fe8…1fd3backed Yes | 11c | 336.11$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.23 | 29 | 13.8%4 W · 25 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x370e…5df3backed No | 55c | 300$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135 | 233 | 47.6%111 W · 122 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c15…9667backed Yes | 45c | 300$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135 | 219 | 41.6%91 W · 128 L | -17.3wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xabfb…12e5backed Yes | 4c | 289.93$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.59 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 52c | 258.61$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.05 | 899 | 55.1%495 W · 404 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65af…df77backed Yes | 17c | 245$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 72 | 52.8%38 W · 34 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d8c…35b0backed Yes | 47c | 213.72$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -2.1wins | -0.11per pick | 53cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7681…ac03backed Yes | 6c | 200$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 88 | 14.8%13 W · 75 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -47%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xafb1…0329backed No | 53c | 135.75$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.36 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 65c | 115.49$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.57 | 1,098 | 43.8%481 W · 617 L | -14.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe253…b9c7backed Yes | 48c | 105.96$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.68 | 60 | 38.3%23 W · 37 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed No | 52c | 105.72$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.99 | 490 | 44.3%217 W · 273 L | -9.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94a5…4eb8backed Yes | 45c | 100$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 75 | 57.3%43 W · 32 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…449ebacked No | 52c | 100$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 237 | 55.3%131 W · 106 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed Yes | 21c | 81.23$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.79 | 738 | 50.3%371 W · 367 L | -2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e78…ccd1backed Yes | 22c | 64.74$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.05 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 30cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe414…c341backed No | 51c | 63.41$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.07 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36cb…5bb7backed No | 52c | 60.01$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.55 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 70cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce3f…67c9backed Yes | 26c | 58.19$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -16%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ba…c5d8backed No | 52c | 58$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.84 | 139 | 51.1%71 W · 68 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed No | 55c | 57$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.65 | 117 | 42.7%50 W · 67 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8dd8…9a1cbacked No | 79c | 52$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 133 | 49.6%66 W · 67 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d9d…7d9ebacked Yes | 50c | 50.11$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 38 | 57.9%22 W · 16 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x18e8…0ba0backed Yes | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 50cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf787…7b27backed No | 79c | 37.52$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +14%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x990f…d200backed Yes | 44c | 34.09$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x63fc…4a6cbacked Yes | 47c | 34.04$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 40 | 62.5%25 W · 15 L | +3.4wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7f02…12f5backed Yes | 45c | 33.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 60 | 46.7%28 W · 32 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3be9…260cbacked Yes | 48c | 31.25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x91f0…c57abacked No | 51c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.7 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ebf…2da0backed Yes | 47c | 27.87$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.16 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | -3.5wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe9da…ed70backed No | 55c | 25.36$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.41 | 103 | 61.2%63 W · 40 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa923…6704backed No | 52c | 24.31$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.67 | 165 | 61.2%101 W · 64 L | +6.3wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e6c…e09cbacked Yes | 49c | 21.24$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.41 | 153 | 58.8%90 W · 63 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4024…4f45backed Yes | 49c | 21$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.29 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.19per pick | 30cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3101…e57fbacked No | 51c | 20.41$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 52 | 50%26 W · 26 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ee7…4c1abacked No | 75c | 19.88$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.95 | 56 | 67.9%38 W · 18 L | +5.0wins | +0.09per pick | 59cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc9b7…93ebbacked No | 76c | 18.15$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.32 | 43 | 62.8%27 W · 16 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30db…44e1backed No | 71c | 17.94$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.22 | 85 | 58.8%50 W · 35 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfce1…4f4cbacked No | 75c | 17.36$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.3 | 63 | 61.9%39 W · 24 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c8a…02acbacked No | 67c | 16.47$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.37 | 44 | 65.9%29 W · 15 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 60cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Beijing Guoan FC win on 2026-04-04?this page
- Will Liaoning Tieren FC vs. Beijing Guoan FC end in a draw?No won
- Will Liaoning Tieren FC win on 2026-04-04?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.