Bundesliga · resolved market
Will SC Freiburg vs. FSV Mainz 05 end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb1730be18cb9a7747b471527958caea466cf04efb3987d3d11edc859deb864da
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,396
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,262
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,396 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x97e0…8194backed No | 72c | 1,997$1,434 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$562.6 | 116 | 44.8%52 W · 64 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked No | 72c | 1,032$743 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$289.24 | 193 | 47.2%91 W · 102 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Yes | 28c | 500.99$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.28 | 565 | 47.8%270 W · 295 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Yes | 27c | 499.96$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.99 | 147 | 56.5%83 W · 64 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Yes | 28c | 375.6$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.17 | 447 | 49.4%221 W · 226 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x873a…2066backed Yes | 4c | 371.02$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.24 | 133 | 32.3%43 W · 90 L | -5.4wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -37%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x23ea…3470backed Yes | 29c | 344.83$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc9f…f2bbbacked No | 72c | 325$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde53…e5bebacked No | 73c | 288.54$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.85 | 77 | 58.4%45 W · 32 L | -3.7wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Yes | 5c | 280$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 223 | 32.3%72 W · 151 L | -7.6wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Yes | 22c | 200$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 782 | 48.8%382 W · 400 L | -28.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 28c | 189.77$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.66 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Yes | 12c | 185.36$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.47 | 511 | 36.8%188 W · 323 L | -28.0wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7d33…e208backed Yes | 27c | 185.19$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 47 | 36.2%17 W · 30 L | -4.1wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdb12…f057backed No | 72c | 166$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.48 | 154 | 53.9%83 W · 71 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…f0a7backed Yes | 27c | 139.98$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.79 | 170 | 55.3%94 W · 76 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ef4…a780backed Yes | 23c | 122.56$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3459…808abacked Yes | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 56 | 21.4%12 W · 44 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfdc…2b36backed No | 73c | 91.78$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.78 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf3…05f6backed No | 73c | 89.04$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.04 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4be5…c185backed No | 73c | 87.67$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.67 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 73cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2331…684dbacked No | 73c | 83.56$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.56 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b94…d008backed No | 73c | 80.82$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.82 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f00…bd63backed No | 73c | 76.71$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.71 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x543c…fe97backed No | 73c | 74.17$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.17 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x521d…713bbacked No | 73c | 71.42$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.42 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc3f…182fbacked No | 73c | 67.17$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.17 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe405…c927backed No | 73c | 64.38$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.38 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa32a…8ba3backed No | 73c | 60.27$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.27 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2ae…f36bbacked Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 45 | 35.6%16 W · 29 L | -5.1wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8c82…05cfbacked No | 72c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.2 | 53 | 39.6%21 W · 32 L | -7.0wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3d9f…0852backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 25 | 68%17 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 75cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed No | 74c | 19.25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 550 | 58.7%323 W · 227 L | +23.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e9…b625backed No | 73c | 17.41$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e6f…eb72backed No | 73c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.05 | 13 | 92.3%12 W · 1 L | +2.3wins | +0.17per pick | 75cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa03a…0dffbacked No | 73c | 14.89$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.02 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 65cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will SC Freiburg vs. FSV Mainz 05 end in a draw?this page
- Will FSV Mainz 05 win on 2025-11-30?No won
- Will SC Freiburg win on 2025-11-30?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.