Bundesliga · resolved market
Will FSV Mainz 05 win on 2025-11-30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8df1a9e1051b20c4cf480dd6be22fdb58b0efc40406a1bb66451dda21afd001b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,570
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,511
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,570 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 74c | 4,120$3,040 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,080.17 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b8e…5c3cbacked Yes | 26c | 4,000$1,050 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,050 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -3.7wins | -0.23per pick | 54cpaid | -47%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Yes | 19c | 2,939$547 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$546.86 | 751 | 42.5%319 W · 432 L | -26.7wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed No | 80c | 2,437$1,950 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$487.45 | 565 | 47.8%270 W · 295 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf142…57e7backed Yes | 20c | 2,000$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 230 | 46.5%107 W · 123 L | -6.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Yes | 20c | 1,500$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 277 | 26.4%73 W · 204 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed No | 80c | 718.14$574 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.89 | 447 | 49.4%221 W · 226 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e49…63f2backed Yes | 20c | 500$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 150 | 24%36 W · 114 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a8d…31eabacked Yes | 21c | 442.86$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93 | 345 | 47.5%164 W · 181 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f7…2abfbacked Yes | 20c | 384.06$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.81 | 101 | 28.7%29 W · 72 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Yes | 9c | 369.85$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.84 | 223 | 32.3%72 W · 151 L | -7.6wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Yes | 22c | 369.07$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.79 | 147 | 56.5%83 W · 64 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5942…5641backed Yes | 21c | 349$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.54 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +5.4wins | +0.23per pick | 32cpaid | +73.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Yes | 14c | 170$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.65 | 782 | 48.8%382 W · 400 L | -28.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea9e…d3fbbacked Yes | 20c | 150$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 97 | 21.6%21 W · 76 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2011…f296backed No | 77c | 106.96$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.6 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcad…0a68backed Yes | 12c | 94.68$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.96 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +2.0wins | +0.15per pick | 46cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xee44…0082backed Yes | 23c | 86.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e10…70f4backed No | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 90 | 53.3%48 W · 42 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c82…05cfbacked Yes | 22c | 49.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 53 | 39.6%21 W · 32 L | -7.0wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa66f…f5a3backed Yes | 21c | 48$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 149 | 42.3%63 W · 86 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc36a…be63backed No | 77c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.9 | 36 | 61.1%22 W · 14 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x59f1…6710backed No | 79c | 25.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 76cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x682f…3265backed No | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 175 | 47.4%83 W · 92 L | -9.0wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x504f…3ddcbacked No | 76c | 21.05$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.05 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6d3…432abacked No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 20 | 90%18 W · 2 L | +4.1wins | +0.20per pick | 70cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa03a…0dffbacked No | 78c | 13.38$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.94 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 65cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will FSV Mainz 05 win on 2025-11-30?this page
- Will SC Freiburg vs. FSV Mainz 05 end in a draw?No won
- Will SC Freiburg win on 2025-11-30?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.