Tennis · resolved market
Set Handicap: Moutet (-1.5) vs Kyrgios (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb1867296a63ac6bcdf9422c0326716ba5485591a81c07cbd46c7b2272f155415
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Kyrgiosof Moutet, Kyrgios
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,650
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,212
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,650 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet's whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb7f5…c669backed Kyrgios | 55c | 2,453$1,349 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,103.95 | 150 | 48%72 W · 78 L | +10.4wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x707b…69f2backed Moutet | 45c | 2,222$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 311 | 46%143 W · 168 L | -8.7wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Moutet | 44c | 505.84$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.27 | 1,522 | 37.8%576 W · 946 L | +26.9wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Kyrgios | 53c | 426.75$226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.84 | 7,791 | 47.8%3,722 W · 4,069 L | +39.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc470…c792backed Kyrgios | 56c | 357.14$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.14 | 1,507 | 35.1%529 W · 978 L | +12.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…f0a7backed Moutet | 45c | 237.84$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.27 | 921 | 49.8%459 W · 462 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6190…5d90backed Moutet | 48c | 226.75$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.84 | 221 | 54.8%121 W · 100 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Moutet | 42c | 220$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.4 | 478 | 54.8%262 W · 216 L | +25.6wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa2af…e3bcbacked Kyrgios | 58c | 220$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.4 | 55 | 61.8%34 W · 21 L | +6.3wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfd2b…9ff9backed Kyrgios | 56c | 214.29$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.29 | 130 | 50.8%66 W · 64 L | +4.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e72…d0b9backed Moutet | 46c | 200$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92 | 709 | 29.1%206 W · 503 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x87e8…5e6ebacked Kyrgios | 57c | 137.82$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.64 | 419 | 55.8%234 W · 185 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd950…ad1bbacked Moutet | 44c | 100$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 65 | 26.2%17 W · 48 L | -5.8wins | -0.09per pick | 35cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7462…3ac3backed Kyrgios | 58c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 1,750 | 50.2%878 W · 872 L | +29.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2546…5155backed Moutet | 42c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 123 | 50.4%62 W · 61 L | -9.4wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -12%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0b2a…0a73backed Moutet | 43c | 46.51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 978 | 58.5%572 W · 406 L | +23.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb0d…7a36backed Kyrgios | 59c | 33.85$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.85 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb481…4db8backed Moutet | 45c | 33.78$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b4…1e3ebacked Moutet | 43c | 33.51$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.41 | 153 | 44.4%68 W · 85 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Moutet | 43c | 32.93$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.16 | 4,098 | 39.8%1,631 W · 2,467 L | +95.7wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac71…b3eabacked Kyrgios | 57c | 32.84$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.17 | 157 | 48.4%76 W · 81 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Kyrgios | 57c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.9 | 1,588 | 47%746 W · 842 L | -24.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa4b…a9aabacked Kyrgios | 56c | 26.79$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.79 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.9wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +87.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set Handicap: Moutet (-1.5) vs Kyrgios (+1.5)this page
- Kyrgios vs. Moutet: Match O/U 21.5Under won
- Kyrgios vs. Moutet: Match O/U 23.5Under won
- Kyrgios vs. Moutet: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5Under won
- Nick Kyrgios vs. Corentin Moutet: Total Sets O/U 2.5Under 2.5 won
- Set 1 Winner: Kyrgios vs MoutetKyrgios won
- Stuttgart Open: Nick Kyrgios vs Corentin MoutetNick Kyrgios won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.