MLB · resolved market
KBO: Samsung Lions vs. NC Dinos
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb1c7e0d3ddb1afba2856fc55c2c3b5cc66598a62d576e4548f1b22cb1c86c3e6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Samsung Lionsof Samsung Lions, NC Dinos
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,754
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,040
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,754 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x255a…3435backed NC Dinos | 35c | 521.92$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.08 | 1,522 | 34.7%528 W · 994 L | +27.1wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6340…1bd0backed Samsung Lions | 55c | 506.58$279 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$227.96 | 116 | 38.8%45 W · 71 L | -6.1wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xebff…70e5backed Samsung Lions | 68c | 390.12$263 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.67 | 351 | 37%130 W · 221 L | -17.7wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3626…3834backed NC Dinos | 36c | 262.97$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.71 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed NC Dinos | 49c | 251.13$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.01 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xafca…92b4backed Samsung Lions | 64c | 232.95$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.81 | 181 | 54.7%99 W · 82 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked NC Dinos | 8c | 230.02$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.4 | 1,843 | 43.6%804 W · 1,039 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b97…6084backed Samsung Lions | 62c | 189.27$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.37 | 591 | 50.3%297 W · 294 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x768d…d230backed NC Dinos | 29c | 171.09$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 50 | 40%20 W · 30 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed NC Dinos | 37c | 136.71$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.95 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked NC Dinos | 38c | 99.99$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 2,261 | 45.4%1,026 W · 1,235 L | +57.4wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4193…4853backed Samsung Lions | 64c | 99.99$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 846 | 51.5%436 W · 410 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x485a…a7c3backed Samsung Lions | 64c | 85$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.6 | 68 | 48.5%33 W · 35 L | -6.0wins | -0.09per pick | 57cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd154…9c74backed NC Dinos | 27c | 78.21$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.77 | 157 | 40.1%63 W · 94 L | -5.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x88fb…db3abacked NC Dinos | 39c | 76.92$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 732 | 43.4%318 W · 414 L | -14.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb01d…46f0backed NC Dinos | 39c | 76.92$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.9 | 1,168 | 49%572 W · 596 L | +17.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe062…4907backed NC Dinos | 36c | 61.66$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.2 | 134 | 52.2%70 W · 64 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked NC Dinos | 30c | 59.32$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.75 | 161 | 32.3%52 W · 109 L | -10.9wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2a37…4daebacked NC Dinos | 36c | 55.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 50 | 62%31 W · 19 L | +5.6wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Samsung Lions | 62c | 51.58$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.6 | 1,912 | 53%1,014 W · 898 L | +42.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcec1…9c0cbacked NC Dinos | 50c | 51.57$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.79 | 123 | 52.8%65 W · 58 L | +4.7wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd5f5…bb11backed Samsung Lions | 61c | 49.99$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 559 | 53.1%297 W · 262 L | +10.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Samsung Lions | 75c | 49.58$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.59 | 852 | 35.8%305 W · 547 L | -23.9wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f56…348abacked Samsung Lions | 59c | 45.84$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.59 | 418 | 36.4%152 W · 266 L | -31.6wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked Samsung Lions | 62c | 43.12$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.39 | 825 | 51.6%426 W · 399 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x55e7…4fb9backed NC Dinos | 38c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 176 | 45.5%80 W · 96 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Samsung Lions | 52c | 33.14$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.93 | 290 | 47.6%138 W · 152 L | -11.4wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x67d2…a008backed Samsung Lions | 63c | 31.75$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.75 | 135 | 65.2%88 W · 47 L | +9.8wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe481…d138backed NC Dinos | 44c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 882 | 47.7%421 W · 461 L | +3.6wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d59…2b49backed Samsung Lions | 65c | 24.62$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.62 | 37 | 56.8%21 W · 16 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x976e…8453backed Samsung Lions | 62c | 24.19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.19 | 162 | 74.1%120 W · 42 L | +9.6wins | +0.06per pick | 68cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7d7f…86d2backed Samsung Lions | 80c | 21.84$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.37 | 503 | 37.2%187 W · 316 L | -42.3wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Samsung Lions | 76c | 20.53$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.88 | 2,545 | 45.9%1,168 W · 1,377 L | -73.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x782b…ff64backed Samsung Lions | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 508 | 60.2%306 W · 202 L | +29.7wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9ef1…5acabacked Samsung Lions | 56c | 18$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.92 | 236 | 47%111 W · 125 L | -11.7wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Samsung Lions | 71c | 15.28$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.47 | 1,269 | 47.4%602 W · 667 L | -31.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.