Fifa International · resolved market
Myanmar vs. Guam: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb1db4199d0c4cf11c6a94eda9d03fa46b2eaf8b9a5f803017951c27fdf8eb49e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,461
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,973
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,461 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Under | 73c | 1,712$1,250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,249.54 | 2,171 | 38.2%829 W · 1,342 L | -36.7wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Under | 55c | 1,448$792 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$792.42 | 2,407 | 37.7%908 W · 1,499 L | -48.7wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked Over | 26c | 784.29$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$580.37 | 407 | 36.6%149 W · 258 L | +10.7wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Over | 29c | 542.15$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$383.7 | 3,992 | 24.9%994 W · 2,998 L | -47.0wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1eba…ff9cbacked Over | 30c | 500$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$350 | 438 | 26.3%115 W · 323 L | +12.6wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Over | 28c | 482.72$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$347.56 | 1,873 | 48.4%906 W · 967 L | +14.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Over | 28c | 305.03$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.77 | 1,941 | 35.5%690 W · 1,251 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 76c | 286.11$217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.3 | 3,696 | 36.9%1,364 W · 2,332 L | -44.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedf7…4003backed Over | 29c | 240$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.4 | 237 | 32.1%76 W · 161 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6553…7a71backed Under | 72c | 208.91$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.42 | 765 | 51.6%395 W · 370 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdcdf…8116backed Over | 72c | 208.46$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.37 | 50 | 42%21 W · 29 L | -4.3wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5e83…3bb7backed Over | 30c | 133.33$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.33 | 1,206 | 32.7%394 W · 812 L | -8.0wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcba3…4db1backed Over | 30c | 110$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x811c…fd36backed Under | 72c | 101.39$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73 | 187 | 69.5%130 W · 57 L | +8.5wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1650…42f6backed Under | 43c | 66.3$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.51 | 71 | 22.5%16 W · 55 L | -8.2wins | -0.12per pick | 34cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Under | 16c | 65$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 2,524 | 42.8%1,081 W · 1,443 L | -10.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 70c | 62$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.4 | 1,688 | 54.4%918 W · 770 L | +31.4wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d70…d0a6backed Under | 43c | 46.51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 77c | 39.25$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 4,457 | 37.2%1,657 W · 2,800 L | +31.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcee6…0a45backed Under | 72c | 34$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.48 | 397 | 46.3%184 W · 213 L | -28.9wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7797…668bbacked Over | 76c | 33.97$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.15 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 69c | 33.51$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.39 | 1,711 | 35.2%603 W · 1,108 L | -68.3wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb821…5cddbacked Under | 72c | 26.78$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.28 | 94 | 63.8%60 W · 34 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Myanmar vs. Guam: O/U 4.5this page
- Myanmar vs. Guam: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Myanmar vs. Guam: O/U 1.5Over won
- Myanmar vs. Guam: O/U 2.5Over won
- Myanmar vs. Guam: O/U 3.5Over won
- Myanmar vs. Guam: O/U 5.5Over won
- Spread: Myanmar (-1.5)Myanmar won
- Spread: Myanmar (-2.5)Myanmar won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.