World Politics · resolved market
Will Luís Marques Mendes win 3rd place in the 1st round of the 2026 Portugal presidential election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb1f11dfb70e0ab7dedc3a04efa3f21834f53823e77f325534a7fb39db19b093b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,317
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,919
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,317 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8375…82e9backed Yes | 1c | 1,400$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a86…dea8backed Yes | 2c | 1,393$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 482 | 24.7%119 W · 363 L | -7.6wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d60…03d8backed Yes | 7c | 1,334$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.35 | 101 | 22.8%23 W · 78 L | -9.5wins | -0.09per pick | 32cpaid | -52.1%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ac…f23dbacked Yes | 4c | 1,136$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.45 | 77 | 42.9%33 W · 44 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6b6…342bbacked Yes | 10c | 1,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 89 | 32.6%29 W · 60 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ad7…15b9backed Yes | 11c | 909.25$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.56 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -57.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbacd…ab35backed Yes | 8c | 908.8$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.69 | 66 | 22.7%15 W · 51 L | -3.4wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -58.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4be5…c1b3backed Yes | 3c | 853.2$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.08 | 78 | 28.2%22 W · 56 L | -3.7wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb632…b203backed Yes | 8c | 762.54$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf6…559dbacked Yes | 10c | 708.99$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.1 | 315 | 34%107 W · 208 L | +7.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad2…fb00backed Yes | 10c | 661.08$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.01 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -85.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3de…e227backed Yes | 7c | 625.17$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.4 | 239 | 21.3%51 W · 188 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6483…ea71backed Yes | 4c | 575.4$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.46 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5b…072dbacked Yes | 18c | 567.73$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 21cpaid | -70.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed3a…4b80backed Yes | 5c | 518.86$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.51 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0711…f03cbacked Yes | 13c | 429$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.08 | 93 | 28%26 W · 67 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9aeb…2729backed Yes | 3c | 408.8$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.45 | 51 | 45.1%23 W · 28 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -19%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 6c | 200$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 549 | 34.6%190 W · 359 L | -37.0wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 254 | 3.5%9 W · 245 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3daf…00b7backed Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa679…7bc6backed Yes | 9c | 175.35$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.59 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 16c | 141.41$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.13 | 990 | 17.2%170 W · 820 L | -148.8wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 34-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x6004…d628backed Yes | 18c | 138.1$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed Yes | 10c | 124.77$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.79 | 449 | 21.2%95 W · 354 L | -21.7wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6604…825abacked Yes | 10c | 104.69$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.19 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b32…fec5backed Yes | 15c | 101.47$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Luís Marques Mendes win 3rd place in the 1st round of the 2026 Portugal presidential election?this page
- Will André Ventura win 3rd place in the 1st round of the 2026 Portugal presidential election?No won
- Will António José Seguro win 3rd place in the 1st round of the 2026 Portugal presidential election?No won
- Will Henrique Gouveia e Melo win 3rd place in the 1st round of the 2026 Portugal presidential election?No won
- Will João Cotrim Figueiredo win 3rd place in the 1st round of the 2026 Portugal presidential election?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.