College Football · resolved market
Spread: Jacksonville State (-4.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb22087837e9331bdc1b5390ad64df4443b8b938740bd8ec0e2aed01f0c0d74f3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Middle Tennesseeof Jacksonville State, Middle Tennessee
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,796
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,796
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,796 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 13 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc9af…6371backed Jacksonville State | 48c | 12,813$6,150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,150 | 41 | 43.9%18 W · 23 L | -3.3wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4fe7…2f3cbacked Middle Tennessee | 52c | 5,000$2,600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,400 | 112 | 48.2%54 W · 58 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Middle Tennessee | 52c | 4,362$2,282 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,080.14 | 2,013 | 49.6%999 W · 1,014 L | +24.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Middle Tennessee | 52c | 3,069$1,596 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,472.98 | 859 | 47.7%410 W · 449 L | +14.9wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Jacksonville State | 48c | 2,733$1,312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,311.93 | 526 | 41.8%220 W · 306 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Middle Tennessee | 52c | 2,724$1,416 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,307.52 | 818 | 47.9%392 W · 426 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d7…a70cbacked Jacksonville State | 47c | 1,915$900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$900 | 90 | 53.3%48 W · 42 L | +5.3wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +15%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xde91…f20abacked Middle Tennessee | 51c | 1,500$765 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$735 | 64 | 40.6%26 W · 38 L | -4.8wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xce99…637ebacked Middle Tennessee | 53c | 755$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$354.85 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | -2.8wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -17%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4231…f63ebacked Middle Tennessee | 52c | 240.32$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.29 | 134 | 50.7%68 W · 66 L | +5.5wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +11%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2160…bcb3backed Jacksonville State | 47c | 170.21$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 92 | 50%46 W · 46 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28a8…57d5backed Middle Tennessee | 54c | 148.15$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.15 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Jacksonville State | 49c | 142.86$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 302 | 53%160 W · 142 L | +10.7wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Jacksonville State (-4.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Jacksonville State (-2.5)Middle Tennessee won
- Jacksonville State vs. Middle TennesseeJacksonville State won
- Jacksonville State vs. Middle Tennessee: O/U 55.5Under won
- O/U 54.5Under won
- Spread: Jacksonville State (-3.5)Middle Tennessee won
- Spread: Jacksonville State (-5.5)Middle Tennessee won
- Spread: Jacksonville State (-6.5)Middle Tennessee won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.