Serie A · resolved market
Spread: Atalanta BC (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb23fb3df820d994e8d51877fa52ef88c2cea3fb9c41f7f87e33cc0eab2076ec1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- AS Romaof Atalanta BC, AS Roma
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Serie Aevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,020
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,070
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,020 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 11 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Serie A is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Serie A | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7087…c61fbacked AS Roma | 67c | 3,999$2,679 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,319.67 | 46 | 58.7%27 W · 19 L | +3.1wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Atalanta BC | 32c | 2,100$671 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$671.12 | 2,538 | 45.9%1,164 W · 1,374 L | +13.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45d9…a89abacked Atalanta BC | 19c | 1,232$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.08 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Atalanta BC | 18c | 1,002$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179 | 969 | 42.3%410 W · 559 L | -13.0wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc443…359bbacked Atalanta BC | 38c | 957.9$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360 | 90 | 46.7%42 W · 48 L | +4.7wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked AS Roma | 63c | 809.47$506 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$303.47 | 1,981 | 39.8%788 W · 1,193 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4926…4d05backed Atalanta BC | 19c | 526.32$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f9…5526backed Atalanta BC | 18c | 95$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.1 | 17 | 76.5%13 W · 4 L | +4.0wins | +0.23per pick | 53cpaid | +46%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xba36…52d0backed Atalanta BC | 19c | 94$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.86 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa8b3…8528backed Atalanta BC | 19c | 78.18$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7181…1b0abacked AS Roma | 68c | 73.53$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.53 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Serie A and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Atalanta BC (-1.5)this page
- Atalanta BC vs. AS Roma: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Atalanta BC vs. AS Roma: O/U 1.5Under won
- Atalanta BC vs. AS Roma: O/U 2.5Under won
- Atalanta BC vs. AS Roma: O/U 3.5Under won
- Atalanta BC vs. AS Roma: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.