Serie A · resolved market
Atalanta BC vs. AS Roma: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbe50f771b21db21e8787e6796344d4db5d5dc53122393c7a6f9f1e684b1f3d79
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Serie Aevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,058
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,979
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,058 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Serie A is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Serie A | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 25c | 5,566$1,398 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,167.92 | 2,538 | 45.9%1,164 W · 1,374 L | +13.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Under | 32c | 5,021$1,584 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,437.03 | 969 | 42.3%410 W · 559 L | -13.0wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf519…906bbacked Over | 70c | 4,000$2,800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,800 | 210 | 58.6%123 W · 87 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6562…4e48backed Over | 80c | 1,451$1,158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,157.6 | 143 | 51%73 W · 70 L | -10.8wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8c0d…b612backed Over | 69c | 434.78$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 154 | 59.7%92 W · 62 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 23c | 428.06$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$330.82 | 1,981 | 39.8%788 W · 1,193 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2060…9186backed Over | 70c | 421.36$295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$294.95 | 72 | 54.2%39 W · 33 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4752…2a91backed Over | 70c | 400$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x34ba…d291backed Over | 72c | 320$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.1 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.9wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Over | 69c | 271$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.99 | 372 | 50.5%188 W · 184 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf7…e5a5backed Over | 38c | 263.16$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 131 | 42%55 W · 76 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x380c…1099backed Over | 69c | 231.95$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.91 | 152 | 53.9%82 W · 70 L | -14.7wins | -0.10per pick | 64cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2dad…a040backed Over | 72c | 194.13$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 112 | 68.8%77 W · 35 L | +4.0wins | +0.04per pick | 65cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a2d…1d12backed Over | 69c | 150.72$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8816…7082backed Over | 53c | 113.21$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 109 | 51.4%56 W · 53 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x727c…c1f5backed Over | 72c | 110.54$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.59 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.16per pick | 56cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5ea0…8f49backed Over | 69c | 108.7$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 15 | 80%12 W · 3 L | +2.8wins | +0.19per pick | 61cpaid | +40.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 61c | 107.29$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.4 | 527 | 48%253 W · 274 L | -35.4wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x28a2…91a4backed Under | 30c | 104$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.8 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 58cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Under | 55c | 100.89$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.59 | 208 | 41.8%87 W · 121 L | -10.7wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -14%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd11…79a5backed Over | 71c | 100$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | -2.9wins | -0.09per pick | 58cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4a4b…bbcabacked Over | 71c | 84.51$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 345 | 53.9%186 W · 159 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Under | 39c | 76.13$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.42 | 368 | 52.7%194 W · 174 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x699c…3600backed Under | 30c | 71$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.7 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +2.0wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x418b…a741backed Over | 71c | 70.42$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 179 | 58.7%105 W · 74 L | -6.9wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c9e…32a9backed Over | 69c | 64.93$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.8 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.0wins | -0.33per pick | 50cpaid | -56%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Over | 72c | 63$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.36 | 144 | 52.1%75 W · 69 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeaf6…8e9abacked Over | 39c | 53.85$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 30 | 16.7%5 W · 25 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 24cpaid | -26%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Under | 29c | 53.41$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.1 | 229 | 47.6%109 W · 120 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb815…342fbacked Under | 31c | 48.42$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.41 | 37 | 59.5%22 W · 15 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…9f5abacked Over | 70c | 42$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.4 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.25per pick | 58cpaid | -50.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x50ca…bfddbacked Over | 43c | 40.46$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.22 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75c0…dfd2backed Over | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +1.5wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaab6…607ebacked Under | 30c | 39.98$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.99 | 179 | 55.3%99 W · 80 L | +7.0wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0828…d57ebacked Over | 70c | 35.27$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.69 | 40 | 60%24 W · 16 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4534…1fc2backed Over | 66c | 34$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.36 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x806c…3381backed Over | 70c | 32$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.4 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe398…ee2ebacked Over | 78c | 31$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.09 | 43 | 65.1%28 W · 15 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2bb7…8745backed Over | 70c | 27$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x522f…1415backed Over | 75c | 26.81$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 67 | 68.7%46 W · 21 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 65cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb385…c1a4backed Over | 70c | 25$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.9wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3e29…d484backed Over | 80c | 24.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.80per pick | 80cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x44c9…2bd8backed Over | 75c | 24.13$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.04 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a88…2bffbacked Over | 75c | 24$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 72 | 45.8%33 W · 39 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac27…18e7backed Over | 70c | 23.57$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 69 | 72.5%50 W · 19 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 68cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9eae…98a5backed Over | 69c | 21.74$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 70 | 58.6%41 W · 29 L | -5.7wins | -0.08per pick | 67cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x38dc…4c5fbacked Over | 70c | 21$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -2.1wins | -0.42per pick | 62cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x663b…e26cbacked Over | 70c | 19$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.3 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Serie A and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Atalanta BC vs. AS Roma: O/U 1.5this page
- Atalanta BC vs. AS Roma: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Atalanta BC vs. AS Roma: O/U 2.5Under won
- Atalanta BC vs. AS Roma: O/U 3.5Under won
- Atalanta BC vs. AS Roma: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Atalanta BC (-1.5)AS Roma won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.