Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 58-59°F on March 21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb2845b91c835d4f7f92ec35ee09fa1196cc782a040e1469499f7252eed9886e3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,946
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,946 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 9c | 3,975$346 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$346.27 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5093…272cbacked Yes | 1c | 3,950$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 727 | 26.4%192 W · 535 L | +63.8wins | +0.09per pick | 18cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 8c | 1,061$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.44 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9868…907ebacked Yes | 14c | 506.86$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.32 | 346 | 18.8%65 W · 281 L | +15.2wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 19c | 440$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.88 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 20c | 415.4$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.2 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc941…a0e8backed Yes | 15c | 415$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.5 | 208 | 38%79 W · 129 L | +9.8wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked Yes | 11c | 399.43$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.37 | 601 | 21%126 W · 475 L | -25.4wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Yes | 17c | 378.85$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.73 | 249 | 32.9%82 W · 167 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 11c | 353.03$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.22 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 16c | 306$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.82 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa37d…b2b4backed No | 74c | 274.05$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.36 | 321 | 57.3%184 W · 137 L | +17.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3efd…b982backed Yes | 21c | 238.15$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.78 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -34%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65df…6144backed Yes | 18c | 233.43$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.72 | 61 | 37.7%23 W · 38 L | -8.4wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x094e…a709backed No | 79c | 227.9$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.65 | 92 | 60.9%56 W · 36 L | +5.6wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 8c | 200.06$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.45 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 10c | 199.34$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed No | 80c | 193.69$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.05 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 17c | 187.31$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.32 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 13c | 179.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 80c | 174.62$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.79 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2cec…a79bbacked Yes | 15c | 166.65$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.26 | 132 | 15.9%21 W · 111 L | -7.0wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2232…e889backed Yes | 13c | 137.23$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.31 | 165 | 29.1%48 W · 117 L | +12.9wins | +0.08per pick | 21cpaid | +62.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9bda…439fbacked Yes | 19c | 131.95$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 594 | 40.6%241 W · 353 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x493b…c7edbacked Yes | 20c | 126.89$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.86 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +1.6wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x09a8…47c1backed Yes | 10c | 125.08$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.92 | 418 | 45.2%189 W · 229 L | +14.7wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d84…4ff1backed No | 79c | 123.68$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.63 | 295 | 58%171 W · 124 L | -13.7wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 76c | 122.16$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.81 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 72c | 120.77$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.62 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 16c | 120.07$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ee7…0ba8backed Yes | 17c | 116.49$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf87c…cfcbbacked No | 79c | 112.91$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.18 | 55 | 67.3%37 W · 18 L | +3.6wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a04…b254backed Yes | 15c | 110.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.02 | 598 | 18.4%110 W · 488 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6371…fc91backed Yes | 43c | 109.12$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.07 | 98 | 36.7%36 W · 62 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8337…2827backed Yes | 11c | 109.06$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.06 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -20%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9c2…d167backed Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 54 | 25.9%14 W · 40 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadb0…1c8cbacked Yes | 27c | 96.52$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.29 | 541 | 43.1%233 W · 308 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46b3…d3debacked Yes | 13c | 92.07$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.27 | 244 | 14.3%35 W · 209 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 80c | 91.62$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.48 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 13c | 84.7$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.7 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a97…0cc8backed Yes | 31c | 81.8$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a27…50debacked Yes | 16c | 81.35$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9caa…1a3fbacked Yes | 16c | 72$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.52 | 122 | 35.2%43 W · 79 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 78c | 71.89$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.73 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43b1…aba6backed Yes | 18c | 70.29$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.58 | 774 | 28.6%221 W · 553 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb87…e08ebacked Yes | 18c | 70.18$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.63 | 61 | 19.7%12 W · 49 L | -3.4wins | -0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 79c | 69.9$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.59 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 18c | 67.04$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.95 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7cd…043fbacked No | 77c | 62.31$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.12 | 56 | 66.1%37 W · 19 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c91…d4cebacked Yes | 34c | 59.18$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 102 | 35.3%36 W · 66 L | -5.1wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce2…80edbacked No | 69c | 57.61$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.61 | 42 | 23.8%10 W · 32 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba21…1122backed No | 72c | 56.47$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.07 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 65cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 22c | 56.3$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.26 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a06…15a9backed Yes | 28c | 55.77$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.62 | 567 | 21.3%121 W · 446 L | -25.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa322…dd03backed Yes | 27c | 54.18$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.75 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e8b7backed Yes | 31c | 49$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.19 | 51 | 17.6%9 W · 42 L | -3.1wins | -0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x27fb…3f5ebacked Yes | 25c | 42.74$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.51 | 209 | 42.1%88 W · 121 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeca9…8952backed No | 79c | 35.99$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.65 | 50 | 62%31 W · 19 L | -3.6wins | -0.07per pick | 69cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked No | 62c | 30.7$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.66 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef0d…ef1cbacked No | 49c | 30.61$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.61 | 218 | 48.6%106 W · 112 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 78c | 29.69$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.42 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26c3…e26dbacked No | 77c | 28.92$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.65 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16d9…f0b0backed No | 74c | 17.76$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.62 | 286 | 48.3%138 W · 148 L | +7.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 80c | 17$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.4 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 58-59°F on March 21?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 41°F or below on March 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 60°F or higher on March 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 42-43°F on March 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 44-45°F on March 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 48-49°F on March 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 50-51°F on March 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 52-53°F on March 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 54-55°F on March 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 56-57°F on March 21?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.