Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 54-55°F on March 21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7509e134e6f477c5e1ebbd9a3f48c66881e06b497c265d6ae072adf93b3a72e4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $44,939
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $44,939 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 120 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6810…c641backed Yes | 1c | 21,520$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.33 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d4e…14cfbacked Yes | 2c | 2,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 138 | 9.4%13 W · 125 L | +10.4wins | +0.08per pick | 2cpaid | +357.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Yes | 4c | 1,074$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.46 | 249 | 32.9%82 W · 167 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4da2…41e5backed Yes | 23c | 715.42$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.16 | 99 | 29.3%29 W · 70 L | +7.2wins | +0.07per pick | 22cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 19c | 711.8$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.78 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa966…208bbacked Yes | 28c | 466.37$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.74 | 52 | 26.9%14 W · 38 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6e6…4cdbbacked Yes | 35c | 397.38$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.05 | 40 | 30%12 W · 28 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed Yes | 11c | 336.91$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.88 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 17c | 311.22$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.34 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 26c | 306$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.56 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 12c | 294$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.02 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 72c | 277.74$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.77 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3085…7568backed Yes | 18c | 220.97$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.75 | 234 | 7.3%17 W · 217 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 7cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e22…3061backed Yes | 23c | 215.65$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.4 | 385 | 15.6%60 W · 325 L | +15.3wins | +0.04per pick | 12cpaid | +93.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked Yes | 23c | 212.23$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.63 | 601 | 21%126 W · 475 L | -25.4wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 73c | 211.5$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.35 | 583 | 49.4%288 W · 295 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa37d…b2b4backed No | 63c | 191$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.83 | 321 | 57.3%184 W · 137 L | +17.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x47af…3999backed No | 59c | 175.44$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.68 | 326 | 52.1%170 W · 156 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ad…d00bbacked No | 74c | 169.03$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.87 | 490 | 38.8%190 W · 300 L | +24.4wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed Yes | 24c | 156.12$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.79 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 33c | 146.89$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.99 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc3b5…2aeebacked Yes | 28c | 138$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.64 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc941…a0e8backed No | 73c | 137$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.53 | 208 | 38%79 W · 129 L | +9.8wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 73c | 136.87$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.01 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4727…405dbacked Yes | 33c | 136.78$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.16per pick | 27cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa2c3…bd8bbacked Yes | 28c | 120$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d65…d838backed Yes | 29c | 117$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 21cpaid | +287.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 66c | 116.79$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.45 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6987…846bbacked Yes | 36c | 109.97$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 90 | 40%36 W · 54 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8165…97b8backed Yes | 37c | 108.75$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.72 | 185 | 50.3%93 W · 92 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 28c | 105.47$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.64 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 31c | 105$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.15 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd642…8037backed No | 74c | 101.96$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.96 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe091…0e5dbacked Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf9c2…d167backed Yes | 27c | 100$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.2 | 54 | 25.9%14 W · 40 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe44…af27backed Yes | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 174 | 33.9%59 W · 115 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…1499backed No | 73c | 93.26$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.51 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8680…a628backed Yes | 27c | 92.59$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc323…4408backed No | 69c | 88.03$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.45 | 335 | 67.5%226 W · 109 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes | 15c | 84.94$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.77 | 1,022 | 30.6%313 W · 709 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a04…b254backed Yes | 27c | 79.94$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.64 | 598 | 18.4%110 W · 488 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65c4…7ea4backed Yes | 25c | 79.77$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 559 | 42.6%238 W · 321 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26c3…e26dbacked No | 54c | 79.29$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.1 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 29c | 79$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.69 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb31e…6a43backed Yes | 39c | 77.1$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 55 | 38.2%21 W · 34 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3efd…b982backed Yes | 35c | 75.98$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.84 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -34%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa654…58c9backed Yes | 27c | 74.66$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 53 | 43.4%23 W · 30 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2205…8089backed No | 74c | 74.6$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.6 | 290 | 56.2%163 W · 127 L | -5.6wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae47…638dbacked No | 75c | 74.44$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.92 | 525 | 71.2%374 W · 151 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf536…54fcbacked Yes | 37c | 73.36$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b11…2976backed Yes | 28c | 72.52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 499 | 41.7%208 W · 291 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x94e6…0a73backed No | 76c | 72.06$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.46 | 78 | 41%32 W · 46 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7a…4d23backed No | 78c | 70$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.4 | 987 | 38.1%376 W · 611 L | +80.8wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x24fe…3419backed No | 79c | 69.98$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.7 | 212 | 35.8%76 W · 136 L | +10.4wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…e04fbacked Yes | 30c | 65.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +121.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88b4…05babacked Yes | 46c | 63.34$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.21 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -38%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 66c | 61.11$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.9 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed No | 61c | 60$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.7 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 73c | 58.66$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.07 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43b1…aba6backed Yes | 17c | 58.51$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.24 | 774 | 28.6%221 W · 553 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe84d…7e86backed No | 72c | 58$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.24 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8d4…2ba1backed No | 72c | 55.56$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.56 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.17per pick | 59cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeae6…6dd3backed No | 71c | 53.13$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.55 | 47 | 57.4%27 W · 20 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x53a0…1907backed Yes | 26c | 52.95$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.75 | 73 | 9.6%7 W · 66 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…db02backed No | 76c | 52$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.48 | 72 | 33.3%24 W · 48 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b46…6381backed No | 74c | 51$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.26 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf2e…c770backed Yes | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 395 | 41.3%163 W · 232 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc448…085ebacked Yes | 23c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 219 | 19.6%43 W · 176 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -35%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05c8…092abacked Yes | 24c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 361 | 23%83 W · 278 L | +15.0wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb6af…4219backed Yes | 31c | 48.91$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 506 | 48.8%247 W · 259 L | +25.1wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8609…a5e2backed No | 72c | 48$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.57 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +39.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bda…439fbacked No | 65c | 47.98$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.77 | 594 | 40.6%241 W · 353 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb87…e08ebacked Yes | 25c | 47.34$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.89 | 61 | 19.7%12 W · 49 L | -3.4wins | -0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc498…8ba5backed Yes | 32c | 46.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 424 | 38.9%165 W · 259 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 31c | 45.59$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.11 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…0201backed No | 69c | 43.6$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.6 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3837…c507backed Yes | 34c | 43.49$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 104 | 44.2%46 W · 58 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x157a…c7a6backed Yes | 31c | 42.47$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.25 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -3.8wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb94e…e6e5backed Yes | 53c | 41.62$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.06 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0461…fcbcbacked No | 62c | 39.98$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.19 | 724 | 66.2%479 W · 245 L | +33.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8208…a737backed No | 76c | 39.4$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.5 | 226 | 75.7%171 W · 55 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 72cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1a06…15a9backed Yes | 32c | 39.22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.46 | 567 | 21.3%121 W · 446 L | -25.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfc33…9636backed No | 64c | 38.96$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.03 | 125 | 40%50 W · 75 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe382…4e25backed No | 71c | 38.85$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.17 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0044…cb2cbacked Yes | 28c | 37.51$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.41 | 368 | 19.6%72 W · 296 L | +21.9wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x420c…1f36backed Yes | 31c | 35.45$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 298 | 35.2%105 W · 193 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f1…6aa4backed No | 72c | 34.38$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.47 | 31 | 67.7%21 W · 10 L | +2.7wins | +0.09per pick | 59cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xba92…babfbacked Yes | 45c | 33.59$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -72.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0eb…a7d8backed No | 76c | 32.77$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.77 | 58 | 74.1%43 W · 15 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47fc…e601backed Yes | 31c | 32.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 77c | 32.49$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16d9…f0b0backed No | 63c | 31.73$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.74 | 286 | 48.3%138 W · 148 L | +7.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1763…ae2dbacked No | 69c | 31.16$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.66 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +39.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb15a…2149backed No | 74c | 31$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.06 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2de…ff4fbacked No | 66c | 30.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.21 | 64 | 60.9%39 W · 25 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9770…d57dbacked No | 72c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.45 | 486 | 72%350 W · 136 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed No | 73c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.1 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5944…a957backed No | 77c | 28.42$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.56 | 39 | 76.9%30 W · 9 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 73cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc1be…6471backed No | 70c | 28.41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.41 | 88 | 61.4%54 W · 34 L | +4.6wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf1…c28cbacked No | 76c | 27.48$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.48 | 35 | 65.7%23 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 54-55°F on March 21?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 41°F or below on March 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 60°F or higher on March 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 42-43°F on March 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 44-45°F on March 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 48-49°F on March 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 50-51°F on March 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 52-53°F on March 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 56-57°F on March 21?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 58-59°F on March 21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.