Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 56-57°F on March 21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xefa93bc8426b55e311fba8bff7747baabbeece95d459881f2f907b95e0bc617f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $36,901
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $36,901 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 118 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x094e…a709backed Yes | 79c | 951.41$751 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.32 | 92 | 60.9%56 W · 36 L | +5.6wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x331b…193fbacked No | 23c | 734.93$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.79 | 900 | 40.7%366 W · 534 L | +112.3wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x1c78…42e6backed No | 11c | 651.88$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 597 | 42%251 W · 346 L | +96.8wins | +0.16per pick | 26cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xa37d…b2b4backed Yes | 69c | 612.16$422 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.06 | 321 | 57.3%184 W · 137 L | +17.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4e3c…eba1backed No | 12c | 610.65$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.12 | 134 | 53.7%72 W · 62 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a3b…957bbacked Yes | 74c | 605.19$445 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.95 | 370 | 56.5%209 W · 161 L | +31.7wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +19%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa26f…1071backed Yes | 69c | 541.96$377 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.33 | 376 | 44.9%169 W · 207 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6371…fc91backed No | 34c | 445.97$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.89 | 98 | 36.7%36 W · 62 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 63c | 439.69$275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.64 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9868…907ebacked No | 24c | 356.22$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.68 | 346 | 18.8%65 W · 281 L | +15.2wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed No | 29c | 307.99$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.13 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 35c | 306$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.54 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 10c | 299.42$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$269.27 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28ab…2048backed No | 23c | 297.84$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.04 | 135 | 31.9%43 W · 92 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbce4…58c5backed Yes | 69c | 289.92$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.92 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.22per pick | 39cpaid | -75.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Yes | 66c | 288.49$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.26 | 249 | 32.9%82 W · 167 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2df0…a625backed Yes | 57c | 266.41$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.95 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86ce…307dbacked Yes | 76c | 264.24$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.24 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 66cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf845…7c31backed No | 41c | 240.69$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 89 | 57.3%51 W · 38 L | +7.9wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 30c | 200.09$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.79 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xf021…df56backed Yes | 75c | 200$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 114 | 36.8%42 W · 72 L | -12.2wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 28c | 200$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.46 | 583 | 49.4%288 W · 295 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 23c | 199.99$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.27 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked No | 29c | 199.99$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 1,032 | 24.3%251 W · 781 L | +40.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e90…be2bbacked Yes | 73c | 199.32$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.82 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 76cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e8b7backed No | 22c | 188$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.28 | 51 | 17.6%9 W · 42 L | -3.1wins | -0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked No | 36c | 175.59$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.49 | 601 | 21%126 W · 475 L | -25.4wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 30c | 166.65$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 38c | 154.44$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.03 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b40…96e3backed No | 10c | 149.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 522 | 45%235 W · 287 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 45c | 147.31$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.02 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 51c | 145.06$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.06 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6987…846bbacked Yes | 70c | 142.86$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.86 | 90 | 40%36 W · 54 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…db02backed No | 51c | 138.45$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.86 | 72 | 33.3%24 W · 48 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50ec…5dcdbacked Yes | 52c | 134.09$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.09 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -34%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 66c | 132.75$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.26 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb1bc…71b3backed Yes | 45c | 127.44$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.51 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6e6…4cdbbacked Yes | 58c | 126.27$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.57 | 40 | 30%12 W · 28 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf730…47a3backed No | 9c | 121.81$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.88 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x74b7…14e9backed Yes | 76c | 120$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.31 | 66 | 45.5%30 W · 36 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1385…e96abacked No | 24c | 110.27$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.92 | 137 | 32.1%44 W · 93 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6810…c641backed Yes | 73c | 110$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.6 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 64c | 105.56$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.53 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2205…8089backed No | 46c | 104.41$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 290 | 56.2%163 W · 127 L | -5.6wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe768…10efbacked Yes | 57c | 100.62$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.62 | 113 | 55.8%63 W · 50 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3906…f74bbacked No | 66c | 100$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.05 | 60 | 53.3%32 W · 28 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3319…977abacked Yes | 15c | 99.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.99 | 264 | 26.9%71 W · 193 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa966…208bbacked Yes | 46c | 97.96$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.44 | 52 | 26.9%14 W · 38 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 66c | 96.01$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.21 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8165…97b8backed No | 55c | 91.23$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 185 | 50.3%93 W · 92 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d84…4ff1backed No | 78c | 89.29$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.09 | 295 | 58%171 W · 124 L | -13.7wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7943…27a1backed Yes | 71c | 81.07$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.39 | 320 | 44.7%143 W · 177 L | +9.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb31e…6a43backed Yes | 64c | 77.85$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.85 | 55 | 38.2%21 W · 34 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0a…bb29backed Yes | 21c | 76.59$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.5 | 114 | 25.4%29 W · 85 L | +6.5wins | +0.06per pick | 20cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2a04…b254backed Yes | 35c | 76.59$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.8 | 598 | 18.4%110 W · 488 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb532…8577backed No | 24c | 74.59$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.91 | 191 | 33.5%64 W · 127 L | +10.2wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 38c | 73.85$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.8 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 30c | 69.92$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.94 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 63c | 66.2$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.92 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40eb…ade9backed Yes | 54c | 65.43$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.06 | 495 | 47.1%233 W · 262 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09a8…47c1backed Yes | 42c | 65.03$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.67 | 418 | 45.2%189 W · 229 L | +14.7wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 50c | 63.78$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.09 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59fe…14fdbacked No | 39c | 60.2$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.63 | 572 | 32.9%188 W · 384 L | -104.6wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 31-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0xc448…085ebacked Yes | 62c | 60$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.52 | 219 | 19.6%43 W · 176 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -35%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf536…54fcbacked Yes | 49c | 59.78$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.55 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4146…8d09backed No | 61c | 59.75$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.34 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2018…640abacked Yes | 68c | 59.09$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.09 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | +2.4wins | +0.11per pick | 35cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 78c | 59$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.02 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 70c | 57.4$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.99 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed No | 29c | 57$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.77 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed No | 34c | 55.83$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.02 | 899 | 51.6%464 W · 435 L | -40.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xadb6…636fbacked No | 26c | 55.25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.16 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 37c | 55.19$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.55 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x710d…02aabacked Yes | 64c | 55$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.95 | 340 | 67.4%229 W · 111 L | +24.4wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x302c…108abacked Yes | 45c | 54.14$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.52 | 48 | 37.5%18 W · 30 L | +3.5wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4bdc…e278backed Yes | 22c | 54$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.12 | 18 | 5.6%1 W · 17 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -74.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa917…7a32backed Yes | 38c | 53.06$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.06 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 27cpaid | -55.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf94…f69dbacked Yes | 39c | 50.53$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.87 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -2.5wins | -0.13per pick | 40cpaid | -35%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked No | 31c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d37…0ef1backed Yes | 74c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.9 | 102 | 58.8%60 W · 42 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 49.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8d…a96cbacked Yes | 40c | 49.75$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.93 | 810 | 29.1%236 W · 574 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4da2…41e5backed No | 57c | 48.6$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.52 | 99 | 29.3%29 W · 70 L | +7.2wins | +0.07per pick | 22cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeb8c…2c71backed No | 56c | 48.57$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.2 | 90 | 53.3%48 W · 42 L | -6.8wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7d3e…1791backed Yes | 62c | 48.2$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc498…8ba5backed Yes | 27c | 47.45$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.45 | 424 | 38.9%165 W · 259 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 22c | 46.78$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.51 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2cb6…2ff6backed Yes | 51c | 43.88$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.38 | 99 | 43.4%43 W · 56 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba21…1122backed Yes | 78c | 43.53$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.53 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 65cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed Yes | 60c | 43.27$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.41 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea39…9e6dbacked Yes | 49c | 41.2$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.2 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 33cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b11…2976backed Yes | 49c | 41.11$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.11 | 499 | 41.7%208 W · 291 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc33…9636backed No | 62c | 40$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.8 | 125 | 40%50 W · 75 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 41c | 39.61$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.2 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5580…8029backed Yes | 56c | 35.98$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.98 | 52 | 61.5%32 W · 20 L | +5.2wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa42b…92e0backed No | 53c | 35.04$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.64 | 63 | 49.2%31 W · 32 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 40c | 33.67$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.18 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1573…a727backed No | 63c | 30.89$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.49 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -3.2wins | -0.12per pick | 53cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeae6…6dd3backed No | 56c | 30.33$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.85 | 47 | 57.4%27 W · 20 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52cd…5626backed Yes | 34c | 30$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.66per pick | 34cpaid | +194.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 56-57°F on March 21?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 41°F or below on March 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 60°F or higher on March 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 42-43°F on March 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 44-45°F on March 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 48-49°F on March 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 50-51°F on March 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 52-53°F on March 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 54-55°F on March 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 58-59°F on March 21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.