Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 94-95°F on July 2?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb2a7268554521d72a89596da937c2eb9a7bfedeabb0e5c64a442750162921dcf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,731
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,359
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,731 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 44c | 325.95$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.63 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 49c | 237.12$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.85 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 63c | 216.28$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.7 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked Yes | 44c | 212$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.16 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5470…0af7backed No | 61c | 163.67$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 328 | 72%236 W · 92 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 73cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed Yes | 41c | 135.22$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.78 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 60c | 124.83$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.43 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef49…d27bbacked Yes | 39c | 120$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.65 | 216 | 51.9%112 W · 104 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 42c | 110.73$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.42 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed No | 38c | 110$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.31 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x116a…a2f2backed Yes | 47c | 106.38$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.38 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x420c…1f36backed Yes | 36c | 100$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64 | 298 | 35.2%105 W · 193 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 51c | 90$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.9 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 47c | 79.93$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.46 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ecc…c745backed No | 39c | 79.17$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.75 | 179 | 47.5%85 W · 94 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 54c | 78.12$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.46 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfddf…1686backed No | 56c | 69$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.39 | 641 | 67.6%433 W · 208 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b72…dc2ebacked Yes | 59c | 61.05$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.17 | 284 | 41.5%118 W · 166 L | -18.8wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd503…325fbacked Yes | 43c | 58.13$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.13 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1894…a936backed Yes | 40c | 57$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.07 | 667 | 58%387 W · 280 L | +48.0wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1bb6…5b35backed No | 54c | 53.56$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.92 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +39.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a1f…4877backed Yes | 36c | 52.24$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.52 | 801 | 30.8%247 W · 554 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 56c | 51$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.58 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b8f…e17ebacked No | 58c | 50$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 272 | 48.9%133 W · 139 L | -10.1wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 53c | 48.21$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.52 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…40c0backed No | 50c | 47.98$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.81 | 800 | 50.1%401 W · 399 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe00a…330ebacked Yes | 44c | 45.9$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.9 | 207 | 50.2%104 W · 103 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb75f…f98bbacked No | 63c | 43.46$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.38 | 46 | 47.8%22 W · 24 L | -3.9wins | -0.08per pick | 56cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xca07…6269backed No | 58c | 42.86$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.86 | 716 | 49.4%354 W · 362 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed No | 58c | 41.78$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.24 | 905 | 55.6%503 W · 402 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe47e…f8abbacked Yes | 73c | 39.97$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.67 | 240 | 66.3%159 W · 81 L | +13.5wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3646…ba5abacked Yes | 43c | 38.83$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.13 | 407 | 41.3%168 W · 239 L | +32.5wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc58e…db6bbacked Yes | 47c | 38.3$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.3 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +39.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd115…4906backed Yes | 68c | 37.19$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.94 | 135 | 88.1%119 W · 16 L | +26.4wins | +0.20per pick | 69cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x9db6…e1f8backed No | 40c | 34.8$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.94 | 111 | 57.7%64 W · 47 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1917…138bbacked No | 57c | 34.08$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.38 | 337 | 46.9%158 W · 179 L | -9.4wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x09bc…f52abacked Yes | 41c | 33.95$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.13 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +11%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 43c | 33.88$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.34 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 54c | 33.14$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.76 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked Yes | 63c | 32.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.99 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6424…2718backed No | 50c | 31.94$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.97 | 427 | 54.6%233 W · 194 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 63c | 31$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.53 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 45c | 30.01$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.6 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 46c | 30.01$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.71 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x10ab…b2e8backed Yes | 60c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.9 | 70 | 40%28 W · 42 L | -5.9wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae7…2b0dbacked Yes | 49c | 29.75$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.18 | 43 | 53.5%23 W · 20 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x069b…3b3bbacked No | 48c | 29.7$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.18 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f1f…cfcdbacked Yes | 43c | 29.65$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.9 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +17%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad5e…56ffbacked No | 53c | 28.3$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | -2.5wins | -0.09per pick | 66cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 39c | 28$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.92 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40ac…647bbacked Yes | 71c | 27$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.9 | 49 | 65.3%32 W · 17 L | +3.9wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 53c | 26.63$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.05 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 59c | 26.62$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.61 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed Yes | 47c | 26.44$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.14 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 53c | 25.53$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.53 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6d3…118ebacked Yes | 47c | 25.53$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.53 | 208 | 42.8%89 W · 119 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked No | 62c | 23.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.57 | 971 | 52.2%507 W · 464 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45b3…5dc9backed No | 63c | 21.78$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.72 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 64cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 58c | 21.71$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.54 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff18…a5fbbacked Yes | 60c | 17.18$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.95 | 78 | 35.9%28 W · 50 L | -7.9wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed Yes | 65c | 17$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.87 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7d8…a8cebacked No | 64c | 16.75$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.72 | 93 | 61.3%57 W · 36 L | +6.0wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8ece…1949backed No | 63c | 16.43$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 173 | 61.8%107 W · 66 L | -9.8wins | -0.06per pick | 68cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 94-95°F on July 2?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 88-89°F on July 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 90-91°F on July 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 92-93°F on July 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 96-97°F on July 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 98-99°F on July 2?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.