Bundesliga · resolved market
Spread: SV 07 Elversberg (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb2b2c32a5c1d79ff171267ff5bd5a614c37f1349dc349eb8d1496a1ca9f07a29
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- SV 07 Elversbergof SV 07 Elversberg, Karlsruher SC
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,656
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,745
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,656 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc291…5d74backed SV 07 Elversberg | 47c | 223.1$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.54 | 817 | 32.8%268 W · 549 L | -11.2wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57c8…3d9bbacked SV 07 Elversberg | 38c | 100$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -2.4wins | -0.13per pick | 39cpaid | -52%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4411…20bfbacked Karlsruher SC | 60c | 98.35$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.54 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e8f…4374backed SV 07 Elversberg | 47c | 92.51$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.03 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed SV 07 Elversberg | 41c | 69.73$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.44 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Karlsruher SC | 55c | 68.64$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.04 | 1,083 | 50.8%550 W · 533 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf68…ed10backed Karlsruher SC | 54c | 56.6$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.56 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf33f…51dabacked SV 07 Elversberg | 45c | 53.51$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.33 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed SV 07 Elversberg | 40c | 47.07$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.24 | 446 | 55.4%247 W · 199 L | +22.4wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Karlsruher SC | 62c | 44.85$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.88 | 640 | 43.9%281 W · 359 L | -9.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Karlsruher SC | 60c | 43.95$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.37 | 435 | 32.2%140 W · 295 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36f9…5445backed Karlsruher SC | 56c | 43.46$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.34 | 37 | 67.6%25 W · 12 L | +4.1wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked SV 07 Elversberg | 58c | 43.2$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.04 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd5bf…f0ccbacked SV 07 Elversberg | 66c | 43.18$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.65 | 66 | 65.2%43 W · 23 L | +12.5wins | +0.19per pick | 46cpaid | +49.8%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Karlsruher SC | 43c | 42.68$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.22 | 1,013 | 44.5%451 W · 562 L | -8.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe505…fadbbacked Karlsruher SC | 50c | 38.8$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.4 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe697…708fbacked Karlsruher SC | 54c | 34.58$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.77 | 106 | 57.5%61 W · 45 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85b8…9d57backed Karlsruher SC | 54c | 33.21$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.93 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f5…8314backed Karlsruher SC | 54c | 32.12$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.35 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -5.2wins | -0.24per pick | 55cpaid | -47.5%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x8584…6b7dbacked Karlsruher SC | 54c | 30.14$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.28 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb71…288ebacked Karlsruher SC | 54c | 27.01$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.59 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa2d3…aafbbacked SV 07 Elversberg | 47c | 26.96$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.29 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5f…7b99backed Karlsruher SC | 55c | 25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.75 | 102 | 46.1%47 W · 55 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Karlsruher SC | 53c | 20.14$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.68 | 172 | 47.1%81 W · 91 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x654d…ba8fbacked Karlsruher SC | 53c | 18.88$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: SV 07 Elversberg (-1.5)this page
- SV 07 Elversberg vs. Karlsruher SC: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- SV 07 Elversberg vs. Karlsruher SC: O/U 1.5Over won
- SV 07 Elversberg vs. Karlsruher SC: O/U 2.5Over won
- SV 07 Elversberg vs. Karlsruher SC: O/U 3.5Under won
- SV 07 Elversberg vs. Karlsruher SC: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Karlsruher SC (-1.5)SV 07 Elversberg won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.