Bundesliga · resolved market
SV 07 Elversberg vs. Karlsruher SC: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9d3c4621ba72d2229c4edc7bf392c93e9e20f1bd8cfb2101b843e6e295449ad5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,101
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,701
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,101 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe4d0…8814backed Over | 70c | 1,263$884 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$378.77 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 34c | 935.7$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320.47 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 30c | 913.05$274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$273.7 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x324c…93d9backed Under | 3c | 899.98$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 24 | 0%0 W · 24 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ca6…6a20backed Over | 56c | 521.57$292 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$229.49 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9660…ba56backed Over | 70c | 491$344 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.3 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.15per pick | 60cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 46c | 456.94$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.53 | 640 | 43.9%281 W · 359 L | -9.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 56c | 447.51$251 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.77 | 1,305 | 40.8%532 W · 773 L | -42.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 34c | 424.57$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.14 | 817 | 32.8%268 W · 549 L | -11.2wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe29f…b2f0backed Under | 29c | 355.29$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.04 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.8wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc514…e9b4backed Over | 56c | 256.94$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.05 | 107 | 28%30 W · 77 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 30c | 252.21$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.84 | 1,083 | 50.8%550 W · 533 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57c8…3d9bbacked Under | 38c | 200.05$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.35 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -2.4wins | -0.13per pick | 39cpaid | -52%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Under | 30c | 198.55$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.56 | 172 | 47.1%81 W · 91 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1891…fd78backed Over | 56c | 194.72$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.68 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde28…8d20backed Over | 66c | 193.59$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.2 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 47c | 147.17$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.17 | 481 | 41.8%201 W · 280 L | -5.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x198f…c419backed Under | 44c | 110.49$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.62 | 84 | 48.8%41 W · 43 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39f6…abe1backed Over | 78c | 103.64$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.31 | 28 | 67.9%19 W · 9 L | +3.2wins | +0.12per pick | 56cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9b78…473dbacked Over | 48c | 99.97$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.87 | 53 | 58.5%31 W · 22 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Over | 56c | 97.36$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.84 | 388 | 45.6%177 W · 211 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6001…0457backed Under | 30c | 96.32$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.9 | 39 | 46.2%18 W · 21 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 41c | 92.51$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.87 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xafaf…572dbacked Over | 53c | 91.68$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.09 | 32 | 62.5%20 W · 12 L | +4.2wins | +0.13per pick | 49cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 69c | 91.38$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.33 | 486 | 58.6%285 W · 201 L | +44.5wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +33%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x16ce…b3dcbacked Over | 65c | 75.31$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.36 | 42 | 61.9%26 W · 16 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6859…f7c2backed Over | 70c | 70.14$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.04 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -2.1wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6cf…0425backed Over | 77c | 60.2$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.85 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa722…8731backed Over | 70c | 44.36$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.31 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3982…2befbacked Over | 59c | 36.2$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.81 | 178 | 52.8%94 W · 84 L | -5.7wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d20…f812backed Over | 55c | 35.38$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.92 | 207 | 53.6%111 W · 96 L | +22.3wins | +0.11per pick | 43cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9637…a576backed Over | 71c | 34.83$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.27 | 116 | 35.3%41 W · 75 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd60c…2b06backed Over | 60c | 33.83$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.53 | 160 | 56.9%91 W · 69 L | +13.3wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Under | 40c | 32.61$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.04 | 435 | 32.2%140 W · 295 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Over | 59c | 30.72$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.57 | 213 | 55.4%118 W · 95 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x47f9…4731backed Over | 63c | 29.73$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.12 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51eb…6bfabacked Over | 70c | 28.06$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.42 | 137 | 54%74 W · 63 L | -5.5wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x03f5…3047backed Over | 70c | 28.06$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.42 | 88 | 63.6%56 W · 32 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 48c | 27.76$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.24 | 215 | 40.9%88 W · 127 L | -15.5wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed Under | 50c | 27.06$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.53 | 550 | 58.7%323 W · 227 L | +23.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x72ee…a848backed Over | 55c | 24.98$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.24 | 115 | 56.5%65 W · 50 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16fe…9496backed Over | 53c | 22.88$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.78 | 158 | 54.4%86 W · 72 L | +6.5wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0fa1…bf73backed Over | 54c | 19.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 77 | 58.4%45 W · 32 L | +5.2wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed Over | 62c | 19.22$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.33 | 185 | 54.1%100 W · 85 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfe6…49f8backed Over | 70c | 18.24$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.47 | 221 | 57%126 W · 95 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Over | 70c | 15.61$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.68 | 125 | 60.8%76 W · 49 L | +12.0wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- SV 07 Elversberg vs. Karlsruher SC: O/U 2.5this page
- SV 07 Elversberg vs. Karlsruher SC: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- SV 07 Elversberg vs. Karlsruher SC: O/U 1.5Over won
- SV 07 Elversberg vs. Karlsruher SC: O/U 3.5Under won
- SV 07 Elversberg vs. Karlsruher SC: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Karlsruher SC (-1.5)SV 07 Elversberg won
- Spread: SV 07 Elversberg (-1.5)SV 07 Elversberg won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.