Bundesliga · resolved market
SV 07 Elversberg vs. Karlsruher SC: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe0c45fa772a53aa9003a1deb1d05807ff095ee522c5f0edb11eec3b95a8d76fa
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,170
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,163
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,170 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 10c | 5,403$555 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$554.93 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Over | 4c | 1,674$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.73 | 1,013 | 44.5%451 W · 562 L | -8.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 49c | 1,471$727 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$743.44 | 640 | 43.9%281 W · 359 L | -9.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74d0…de45backed Over | 45c | 1,286$578 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$578.48 | 44 | 45.5%20 W · 24 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 46c | 927.69$428 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$499.76 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 55c | 622.54$345 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$277.59 | 481 | 41.8%201 W · 280 L | -5.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6394…9749backed Over | 49c | 606.03$297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$296.96 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -4.1wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | -50.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 48c | 354.32$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.67 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bb5…a518backed Over | 49c | 327.43$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.56 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | -2.1wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -22%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Over | 46c | 300$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138 | 45 | 33.3%15 W · 30 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x258f…4493backed Over | 26c | 259.92$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.58 | 74 | 24.3%18 W · 56 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c3e…8b7cbacked Under | 52c | 224.31$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.76 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 53c | 221.58$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.75 | 1,305 | 40.8%532 W · 773 L | -42.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 51c | 176.18$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.71 | 1,083 | 50.8%550 W · 533 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed Over | 53c | 155.03$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.67 | 208 | 45.7%95 W · 113 L | -16.2wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3e8f…4374backed Over | 48c | 151.61$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.42 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe941…a496backed Over | 13c | 117.35$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.63 | 73 | 65.8%48 W · 25 L | +8.5wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xafaf…572dbacked Over | 48c | 111.01$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.28 | 32 | 62.5%20 W · 12 L | +4.2wins | +0.13per pick | 49cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6804…29e2backed Under | 51c | 101.23$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.24 | 68 | 54.4%37 W · 31 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6ee…b3aabacked Over | 47c | 100$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85a1…a640backed Over | 47c | 96.27$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.01 | 89 | 59.6%53 W · 36 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Over | 42c | 94.13$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.1 | 222 | 21.6%48 W · 174 L | -34.2wins | -0.15per pick | 37cpaid | -50.3%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xd60c…2b06backed Over | 40c | 87.85$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.98 | 160 | 56.9%91 W · 69 L | +13.3wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xef20…c46abacked Over | 55c | 86.18$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.47 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -2.2wins | -0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 52c | 80.41$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.32 | 817 | 32.8%268 W · 549 L | -11.2wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Over | 54c | 77.41$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.61 | 213 | 55.4%118 W · 95 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6cf…0425backed Over | 71c | 77.06$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.04 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd80…5ef4backed Over | 48c | 71.94$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.31 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Under | 51c | 63.19$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.09 | 125 | 60.8%76 W · 49 L | +12.0wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Over | 41c | 61.56$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.53 | 172 | 47.1%81 W · 91 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed Over | 59c | 59.86$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.31 | 186 | 44.1%82 W · 104 L | -10.9wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed Under | 63c | 57$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.22 | 550 | 58.7%323 W · 227 L | +23.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa2d3…aafbbacked Over | 50c | 51.22$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.61 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e3e…7857backed Over | 48c | 51.06$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.51 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…16c5backed Over | 48c | 50.46$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.22 | 94 | 47.9%45 W · 49 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd28e…a78fbacked Over | 48c | 50.46$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.22 | 38 | 57.9%22 W · 16 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4662…d084backed Over | 50c | 48.5$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9637…a576backed Over | 50c | 48.5$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.25 | 116 | 35.3%41 W · 75 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa975…42eebacked Over | 58c | 46.25$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.74 | 50 | 52%26 W · 24 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0c0…2489backed Over | 49c | 45.48$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.42 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36f9…5445backed Under | 54c | 45.27$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.96 | 37 | 67.6%25 W · 12 L | +4.1wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5bfe…0741backed Under | 52c | 44.17$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.25 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f22…0fb4backed Over | 57c | 43.06$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.38 | 48 | 45.8%22 W · 26 L | -3.5wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x134c…eeefbacked Over | 47c | 41.2$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.36 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | +5.9wins | +0.17per pick | 40cpaid | +40.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Under | 51c | 40.82$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 330 | 47.3%156 W · 174 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57c8…3d9bbacked Over | 40c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.16 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -2.4wins | -0.13per pick | 39cpaid | -52%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Under | 53c | 39.54$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.59 | 496 | 47.4%235 W · 261 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x50e9…5efebacked Over | 48c | 38.75$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 128 | 43%55 W · 73 L | -9.9wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1105…09d0backed Under | 53c | 38.6$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.14 | 73 | 78.1%57 W · 16 L | +6.9wins | +0.09per pick | 69cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe697…708fbacked Under | 53c | 36.89$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.46 | 106 | 57.5%61 W · 45 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1292…9e7cbacked Over | 71c | 33.78$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.99 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.5wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed Over | 50c | 33.54$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.75 | 185 | 54.1%100 W · 85 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3982…2befbacked Over | 50c | 33.54$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.75 | 178 | 52.8%94 W · 84 L | -5.7wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x44b8…a2d7backed Under | 59c | 33.06$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.56 | 205 | 40%82 W · 123 L | -8.0wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9857…a505backed Over | 46c | 31.85$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.54 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f6d…bfc5backed Over | 43c | 26.73$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.38 | 46 | 41.3%19 W · 27 L | -3.8wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1643…6ec8backed Over | 52c | 25.6$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.41 | 34 | 61.8%21 W · 13 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16fe…9496backed Over | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 158 | 54.4%86 W · 72 L | +6.5wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc75b…3ea7backed Over | 58c | 24.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 106 | 47.2%50 W · 56 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdb1…cddbbacked Over | 50c | 22.82$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.41 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.15per pick | 58cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa64f…e598backed Over | 60c | 21.96$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.18 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 68cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x654d…ba8fbacked Under | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9db…dd44backed Under | 53c | 19.58$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 58 | 55.2%32 W · 26 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e6c…e09cbacked Over | 68c | 18.43$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.53 | 110 | 49.1%54 W · 56 L | -4.4wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43c7…d727backed Under | 75c | 14.04$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.51 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- SV 07 Elversberg vs. Karlsruher SC: O/U 3.5this page
- SV 07 Elversberg vs. Karlsruher SC: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- SV 07 Elversberg vs. Karlsruher SC: O/U 1.5Over won
- SV 07 Elversberg vs. Karlsruher SC: O/U 2.5Over won
- SV 07 Elversberg vs. Karlsruher SC: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Karlsruher SC (-1.5)SV 07 Elversberg won
- Spread: SV 07 Elversberg (-1.5)SV 07 Elversberg won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.