Valorant · resolved market
Valorant: Murash vs Insomnia (BO3) - VCL Japan: Phase 2
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb2b4aacca5193ac509ba82cd9ea62a2d6f97811fd68ab2a40498d6d5c23b7e4f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Insomniaof Murash, Insomnia
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Valorantevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,371
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,635
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,371 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Valorant is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Valorant | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe01f…ab4abacked Insomnia | 31c | 884.18$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$614.38 | 254 | 44.9%114 W · 140 L | +5.4wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdf3…1bb5backed Insomnia | 28c | 575.93$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$413.02 | 63 | 46%29 W · 34 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f5d…b919backed Murash | 72c | 465.15$334 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$334.32 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe76d…5a75backed Murash | 59c | 213.21$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.79 | 534 | 42.1%225 W · 309 L | -15.0wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1abd…579abacked Murash | 45c | 196$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed Insomnia | 30c | 151.83$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.65 | 1,746 | 46.2%806 W · 940 L | -3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa74a…4893backed Insomnia | 51c | 140.22$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.3 | 347 | 39.8%138 W · 209 L | -13.7wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6326…6329backed Murash | 72c | 127.09$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.5 | 118 | 43.2%51 W · 67 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fb4…d080backed Murash | 59c | 121.8$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.48 | 44 | 63.6%28 W · 16 L | +4.4wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1b3e…5bc0backed Murash | 59c | 108.9$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.76 | 62 | 50%31 W · 31 L | -4.7wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x912e…0eaebacked Insomnia | 13c | 100.61$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.53 | 86 | 34.9%30 W · 56 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x07e3…37b1backed Murash | 60c | 98.04$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.82 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.8wins | -0.31per pick | 53cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Murash | 16c | 88.67$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.19 | 702 | 51.3%360 W · 342 L | +7.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66ed…d321backed Murash | 51c | 87.35$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.55 | 39 | 61.5%24 W · 15 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Murash | 45c | 82.48$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.12 | 54 | 38.9%21 W · 33 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Murash | 19c | 74.08$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.11 | 697 | 22.8%159 W · 538 L | -94.4wins | -0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Insomnia | 50c | 71.34$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.82 | 1,417 | 51.3%727 W · 690 L | +49.9wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b28…ff4fbacked Insomnia | 51c | 64.21$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.4 | 402 | 54.7%220 W · 182 L | +17.7wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf1a3…0c69backed Insomnia | 47c | 62.09$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.02 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86bc…efbcbacked Murash | 71c | 58.95$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.85 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.33per pick | 58cpaid | -54.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xca38…720fbacked Murash | 52c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82cf…3d55backed Murash | 60c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 40 | 52.5%21 W · 19 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf21d…2e9abacked Murash | 60c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 267 | 58.8%157 W · 110 L | +18.8wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd43f…0bb0backed Murash | 44c | 48.32$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.26 | 86 | 25.6%22 W · 64 L | -4.8wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeac5…cab7backed Murash | 60c | 47.06$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.24 | 79 | 48.1%38 W · 41 L | +5.5wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x191b…824abacked Murash | 63c | 45.49$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.61 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 56cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbda…8bd5backed Murash | 59c | 40$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.6 | 105 | 50.5%53 W · 52 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8941…83d7backed Murash | 44c | 39.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 67 | 59.7%40 W · 27 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd5…15a8backed Murash | 39c | 36$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.07 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c97…c20bbacked Murash | 58c | 33.61$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37db…dff4backed Insomnia | 55c | 26.69$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.1 | 80 | 50%40 W · 40 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6d2…d67bbacked Murash | 72c | 20.39$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.68 | 219 | 51.6%113 W · 106 L | -16.1wins | -0.07per pick | 59cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd62b…a2f8backed Insomnia | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa983…16cbbacked Murash | 62c | 16.64$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.32 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | -4.7wins | -0.23per pick | 37cpaid | -80.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Valorant and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Valorant: Murash vs Insomnia (BO3) - VCL Japan: Phase 2this page
- Valorant: Murash vs Insomnia - Map 2 WinnerInsomnia won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.