Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 10°C on February 20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb2d902f4371d6ac5303e305d9e27da83611dad381fee3e912d28b6f706cc2170
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,299
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,317
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,299 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 8c | 200$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x49c2…33f3backed Yes | 30c | 159.51$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.16 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 12c | 150$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1,242 | 16.7%207 W · 1,035 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe67b…f8b2backed Yes | 25c | 122.44$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.61 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 15cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked Yes | 32c | 116.82$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.82 | 601 | 21%126 W · 475 L | -25.4wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6372…4a25backed No | 68c | 110.29$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.29 | 410 | 70.5%289 W · 121 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 24c | 91.61$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.92 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0eec…e587backed Yes | 24c | 90.35$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.67 | 88 | 35.2%31 W · 57 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7cde…1af7backed No | 59c | 77.73$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.24 | 201 | 46.3%93 W · 108 L | -5.1wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca85…fe6cbacked Yes | 24c | 73.3$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.54 | 222 | 36.5%81 W · 141 L | +10.1wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d46…cf8bbacked Yes | 43c | 70$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.1 | 58 | 48.3%28 W · 30 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 59c | 64.53$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.4 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb3bd…458dbacked Yes | 37c | 61.5$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.64 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes | 50c | 58.5$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.14 | 1,032 | 24.3%251 W · 781 L | +40.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd83…d74fbacked Yes | 46c | 53.92$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -3.1wins | -0.24per pick | 40cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcf45…551fbacked Yes | 33c | 53.38$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.54 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | -5.1wins | -0.24per pick | 39cpaid | -71.3%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x39a2…00e3backed Yes | 38c | 53.15$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.15per pick | 29cpaid | +42.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb3b4…48b2backed Yes | 53c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 206 | 31.6%65 W · 141 L | -23.6wins | -0.11per pick | 43cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xff5e…a98cbacked Yes | 38c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -2.2wins | -0.13per pick | 42cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8daf…8c4abacked Yes | 36c | 44.64$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ccd…357bbacked Yes | 53c | 40$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.2 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60ef…f21dbacked No | 62c | 34.52$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.12 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 41c | 29.57$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xa7d1…0e35backed Yes | 43c | 23.36$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9da…ed70backed No | 67c | 16.63$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.49 | 763 | 71.4%545 W · 218 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 10°C on February 20?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 11°C on February 20?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 12°C on February 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 13°C on February 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 6°C or below on February 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 7°C on February 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 9°C on February 20?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.