TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Movies · resolved market

Will "Oppenheimer" win the Oscar for Best Picture?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$168,513
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$175,049

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $168,513 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Movies
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xcea3…d844backed No8c47,546$3,823 inLost-$3,823.45333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.13per pick20cpaid-4.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9506…1cd8backed No9c5,000$450 inLost-$45060%0 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe8a4…8611backed No15c3,765$568 inLost-$568714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.4wins-0.20per pick35cpaid-74.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x574e…3ef1backed No8c1,200$99 inLost-$99.3460%0 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xacda…1d8bbacked No17c1,106$184 inLost-$18430%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6d49…fe93backed No16c1,000$160 inLost-$16010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0633…e789backed No5c1,000$48 inLost-$4820%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8bb3…f8dfbacked No7c952.38$68 inLost-$6810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3cf3…87b3backed No13c825.16$107 inLost-$106.92137.7%1 W · 12 L-2.5wins-0.19per pick27cpaid-88.3%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x9b47…24d1backed No4c605.17$24 inLost-$23.5710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x52cc…fefbbacked No7c442.29$30 inLost-$30425%1 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick22cpaid-35.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x72df…387dbacked No8c423.81$35 inLost-$3520%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x32f4…c885backed No9c399.36$38 inLost-$37.8216614.5%24 W · 142 L-3.9wins-0.02per pick17cpaid-32.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4832…7909backed No8c371.79$29 inLost-$28.6310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb899…1e27backed No7c360.57$25 inLost-$25.2410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8e70…6f23backed No7c357.14$25 inLost-$2520%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x574e…97babacked No15c333.33$50 inLost-$5020%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4337…8882backed No9c254.14$23 inLost-$22.784829.2%14 W · 34 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick32cpaid-42.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc701…920ebacked No7c214.29$15 inLost-$1510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x964e…40cfbacked No6c200$12 inLost-$1230%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1119…3b4fbacked No7c187$13 inLost-$13.0910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8edb…df73backed No16c156.25$25 inLost-$2520%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8910…2995backed No16c154.12$25 inLost-$24.6620%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7c8b…7377backed No8c130$11 inLost-$10.930%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaae8…3524backed No16c125$20 inLost-$2070%0 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfb74…f8a3backed No14c122.57$17 inLost-$17333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick30cpaid-45.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.