Dota2 · resolved market
Game Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Heroic (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb2fb700b6eec5f03a11d84fca9724fcb012b61355374435a391ffeb3d406f53c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Heroicof Team Spirit, Heroic
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,109
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,109 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x348e…c889backed Team Spirit | 24c | 497$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e21…bc01backed Team Spirit | 24c | 417$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.08 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc59c…0268backed Team Spirit | 24c | 410$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1baf…1023backed Heroic | 76c | 259$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.16 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x442f…7f41backed Heroic | 76c | 239$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.36 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x030d…06c1backed Heroic | 76c | 236$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.64 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32c3…578cbacked Heroic | 76c | 235$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f06…0759backed Heroic | 76c | 213$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.12 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02af…a4a3backed Heroic | 76c | 213$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.12 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e78…f5febacked Heroic | 76c | 207$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.68 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe766…404dbacked Heroic | 70c | 199.99$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +2.0wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +24%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcc42…9c3ebacked Team Spirit | 24c | 198$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x78c2…7031backed Heroic | 76c | 195$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe38…4faebacked Heroic | 76c | 194$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.56 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x639d…5e1ebacked Team Spirit | 24c | 191$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9aa…fff3backed Heroic | 76c | 188$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.12 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x747a…1b25backed Team Spirit | 24c | 171$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.04 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6505…befcbacked Team Spirit | 24c | 158$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9919…f261backed Team Spirit | 30c | 144.96$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.49 | 189 | 54%102 W · 87 L | +7.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6f6…a12bbacked Team Spirit | 24c | 137$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.88 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Heroic | 74c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.4 | 2,012 | 44.2%889 W · 1,123 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba05…f8c0backed Team Spirit | 28c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 491 | 33.6%165 W · 326 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2d…fbf5backed Heroic | 72c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.2 | 224 | 56.3%126 W · 98 L | +11.9wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x53f0…fff4backed Heroic | 72c | 16.67$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.67 | 47 | 72.3%34 W · 13 L | +3.8wins | +0.08per pick | 64cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Game Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Heroic (+1.5)this page
- Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Heroic (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Group StageTeam Spirit won
- Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Heroic - Game 1 WinnerHeroic won
- Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Heroic - Game 2 WinnerTeam Spirit won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.