TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Dota2 · resolved market

Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Heroic - Game 2 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Team Spiritof Team Spirit, Heroic
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$325,756

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $325,756 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 195 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Dota2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x5d58…9a15backed Team Spirit60c67,247$40,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26,647.1314840.5%60 W · 88 L-4.0wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-10.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa5ea…d96abacked Heroic40c45,010$18,004 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18,003.9328748.8%140 W · 147 L-4.9wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdc40…89cfbacked Heroic39c19,278$7,590 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,590.4236041.4%149 W · 211 L-22.2wins-0.06per pick48cpaid-12.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xf9b5…09eebacked Team Spirit59c12,603$7,390 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,212.7655157%314 W · 237 L+17.4wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x66fb…9f72backed Team Spirit60c11,629$7,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,628.7654556.5%308 W · 237 L+10.4wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3833…33d1backed Heroic41c7,943$3,256 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,256.4842650%213 W · 213 L+4.9wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa3fb…19c0backed Heroic0c7,800$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.66735.8%24 W · 43 L-0.2wins0.00per pick36cpaid-8.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf679…16acbacked Heroic42c6,614$2,767 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,767.2822954.1%124 W · 105 L+8.2wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+7.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc49f…9e05backed Heroic41c5,834$2,392 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,392.0110445.2%47 W · 57 L+0.4wins0.00per pick45cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x52ec…a6f3backed Team Spirit59c4,000$2,360 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,640616.7%1 W · 5 L-2.6wins-0.43per pick59cpaid-71.8%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x7a46…ab25backed Heroic42c3,857$1,629 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,629.3612156.2%68 W · 53 L+7.6wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+2.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Heroic38c3,735$1,438 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,437.962,01244.2%889 W · 1,123 L+36.6wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb4a9…3d6fbacked Team Spirit59c3,607$2,114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,492.959145.1%41 W · 50 L-2.7wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-14.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x87da…53d1backed Team Spirit41c3,442$1,417 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,025.396557.4%554 W · 411 L+49.5wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+7.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5e38…de0fbacked Heroic39c3,328$1,312 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,311.616043.3%26 W · 34 L-2.5wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-14.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x60d0…e05fbacked Heroic41c3,248$1,332 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,331.6841242.2%174 W · 238 L-0.4wins0.00per pick42cpaid-2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0dcf…c556backed Heroic41c2,787$1,142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,142.533746.3%156 W · 181 L-4.2wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-4.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x913c…39b3backed Heroic2c2,453$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.8371454.5%389 W · 325 L+55.6wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+7.9%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x8c29…afadbacked Team Spirit59c2,408$1,421 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$987.416150.8%31 W · 30 L-4.0wins-0.06per pick57cpaid-15.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x7dfd…8d75backed Heroic5c2,355$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.0124251.7%125 W · 117 L+21.0wins+0.09per pick43cpaid+15.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xbc67…5286backed Heroic43c2,104$904 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$903.7566662.2%414 W · 252 L+60.2wins+0.09per pick53cpaid+10.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xd06c…cdafbacked Team Spirit47c2,095$979 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,115.761,18643.2%512 W · 674 L+42.2wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+1.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa0f9…cf34backed Team Spirit79c1,768$1,405 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$363.0818661.8%115 W · 71 L-6.9wins-0.04per pick66cpaid-10.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3f40…e1f2backed Heroic40c1,311$525 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5254932.7%16 W · 33 L-7.0wins-0.14per pick47cpaid-35.1%equal weight39-0.09 edge/pick
0xd161…4cc1backed Heroic57c1,306$748 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74880443.9%353 W · 451 L-1.7wins0.00per pick44cpaid-11%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5799…db25backed Heroic72c1,244$900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90046049.8%229 W · 231 L+2.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-1.9%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xd055…28d0backed Heroic51c1,239$630 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$630.0826550.6%134 W · 131 L+12.0wins+0.05per pick46cpaid+6.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xfdc0…4b85backed Heroic43c1,208$522 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$521.891,57743.9%692 W · 885 L-10.4wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-8.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed Heroic43c1,177$511 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$511.282,82843.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L-39.5wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-20.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4c52…e75fbacked Heroic9c1,163$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.4913732.8%45 W · 92 L+8.0wins+0.06per pick27cpaid-15.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x82da…da33backed Heroic45c1,120$504 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$503.6810743%46 W · 61 L-6.9wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-16.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0eec…89babacked Team Spirit59c1,080$637 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$442.8520%1 W · 4 L-2.0wins-0.41per pick61cpaid-66.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Heroic22c1,058$237 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$236.651,52137.9%576 W · 945 L-57.8wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-26.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x65e0…e51dbacked Heroic56c1,003$561 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56119443.3%84 W · 110 L-9.2wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-15.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8a38…fee0backed Heroic43c889.67$385 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$384.6560349.9%301 W · 302 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-4.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x1a8d…ab7ebacked Heroic55c867.09$481 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$480.98844.3%39 W · 49 L-3.1wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-13%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x860e…a06dbacked Heroic21c865.63$179 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$178.9416440.2%66 W · 98 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfcf2…a469backed Team Spirit59c625.33$369 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$256.3913455.2%74 W · 60 L+7.4wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+2.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x70c1…dba0backed Team Spirit57c580.44$331 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$249.5922643.8%99 W · 127 L-6.3wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-10.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x491d…f42bbacked Heroic40c500$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20039660.1%238 W · 158 L+8.5wins+0.02per pick58cpaid+1.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9942…5c84backed Heroic52c476.64$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25026453%140 W · 124 L+0.2wins0.00per pick53cpaid-2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1b12…5f8fbacked Heroic41c452.88$186 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$185.6829548.5%143 W · 152 L+0.5wins0.00per pick48cpaid+1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x274f…971abacked Team Spirit57c439.18$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$189.1814657.5%84 W · 62 L+0.2wins0.00per pick57cpaid-5.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4f41…547cbacked Heroic16c437.5$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7013142.7%56 W · 75 L-6.7wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-23.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x63a2…5bc1backed Heroic24c416.67$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10012638.9%49 W · 77 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-4.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4c90…cd7bbacked Heroic3c400$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10195.3%1 W · 18 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick4cpaid-71%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x0ac5…f963backed Heroic22c386.95$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.7612252.5%64 W · 58 L+5.8wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+0.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb4cb…63bebacked Heroic69c362.85$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250.1312455.6%69 W · 55 L+5.0wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+4.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xacf6…41fcbacked Heroic56c357.14$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20060646.9%284 W · 322 L+10.5wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+4.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0c67…d062backed Team Spirit59c340.24$201 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$139.51,13742.3%481 W · 656 L-27.5wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-9.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xae10…d0d9backed Team Spirit59c337.38$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$137.3817353.2%92 W · 81 L+8.6wins+0.05per pick48cpaid-4.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0828…5cfebacked Team Spirit61c333.7$205 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$128.9116550.9%84 W · 81 L-6.1wins-0.04per pick55cpaid-9.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x17ca…87d1backed Heroic61c327.87$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20019552.8%103 W · 92 L-15.2wins-0.08per pick61cpaid-15%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xb22d…3a13backed Team Spirit59c323.2$190 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$133.224045.4%109 W · 131 L-4.4wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-8.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3fc7…62b9backed Heroic40c321.68$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.6765441.9%274 W · 380 L-1.3wins0.00per pick42cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe175…7d48backed Heroic44c321.6$143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1435846.6%27 W · 31 L-3.7wins-0.06per pick53cpaid-19.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x01d4…33d8backed Heroic56c300.9$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17011757.3%67 W · 50 L+4.0wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x368d…d853backed Heroic41c300.1$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.2361548.8%300 W · 315 L+8.2wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1ae1…c891backed Team Spirit67c300.01$202 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.2133549.9%167 W · 168 L+6.3wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0d03…9a41backed Team Spirit55c300$165 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13523050.9%117 W · 113 L-0.3wins0.00per pick51cpaid-10.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1709…c148backed Heroic50c298.99$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$148.9948352.4%253 W · 230 L-2.2wins0.00per pick53cpaid-5.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdc5a…bf71backed Heroic53c295.83$157 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$157.1246649.8%232 W · 234 L+8.3wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-12.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe76d…5a75backed Heroic42c294.26$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123.591,24844.4%554 W · 694 L+17.0wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xce61…8ef6backed Team Spirit26c289.76$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$214.656127.9%17 W · 44 L-2.3wins-0.04per pick32cpaid-27.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcb5b…f243backed Heroic44c288.39$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126.891,27245%572 W · 700 L-40.5wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-17.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc647…2f03backed Team Spirit52c287.18$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$137.184042.5%17 W · 23 L-1.4wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-19.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb9fb…95fbbacked Heroic53c283.71$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149.468854.5%48 W · 40 L+2.4wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x588d…3f41backed Heroic26c276.72$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.6628544.9%128 W · 157 L-7.9wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-7.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb3c5…f095backed Team Spirit58c258.62$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.6260660.7%368 W · 238 L+8.9wins+0.01per pick59cpaid+0.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xfb67…fd46backed Heroic24c253.39$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.819533.7%32 W · 63 L-2.4wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-7.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x41cc…adc7backed Heroic65c249.32$162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$162.064045%18 W · 22 L-1.5wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-5.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x106f…d28fbacked Heroic40c247.88$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.852646.2%12 W · 14 L-1.4wins-0.06per pick52cpaid-9.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2c1a…42d8backed Heroic32c211.93$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.889837.8%37 W · 61 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick39cpaid+0.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbc15…3a2ebacked Heroic39c211.93$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.021747.1%8 W · 9 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-15.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf3be…f543backed Team Spirit61c210.96$128 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.3125457.9%147 W · 107 L+4.7wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+6.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8031…67e0backed Heroic41c200$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8273743.6%321 W · 416 L-10.8wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-5.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5a28…41edbacked Heroic41c200$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8221350.7%108 W · 105 L+5.5wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+0.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6ae1…1e7ebacked Heroic54c199.99$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10832951.7%170 W · 159 L-0.9wins0.00per pick52cpaid-7.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x26d6…56efbacked Heroic40c199.58$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.8356542.8%242 W · 323 L+5.1wins+0.01per pick42cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x42b7…77dcbacked Team Spirit51c194.48$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.1499844.4%443 W · 555 L+21.0wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Heroic32c187.45$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.579350.5%47 W · 46 L-0.3wins0.00per pick51cpaid-15.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xca1f…ed28backed Team Spirit73c177.5$129 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.7460552.6%318 W · 287 L+15.0wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-0.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x77f2…eec6backed Team Spirit57c176.75$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.7555457.8%320 W · 234 L+12.3wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+0.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa97f…a818backed Team Spirit41c175.82$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103.8458744%258 W · 329 L+13.3wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb97e…262bbacked Heroic38c170.26$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6452649.2%259 W · 267 L+21.1wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa1c6…d2d6backed Team Spirit61c163.93$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.938445.2%38 W · 46 L-9.1wins-0.11per pick56cpaid-21%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x86e0…c394backed Team Spirit56c160$89 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7180742.6%344 W · 463 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc4b2…4ab2backed Team Spirit47c158.53$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.0228244%124 W · 158 L-5.1wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2761…4d95backed Heroic40c152.57$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.0344645.7%204 W · 242 L+0.2wins0.00per pick46cpaid-1.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb3c6…54cbbacked Heroic10c150$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.75246.2%24 W · 28 L+6.7wins+0.13per pick33cpaid+38.7%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x930e…38cfbacked Heroic15c150$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.537018.9%70 W · 300 L+3.5wins+0.01per pick18cpaid-24%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5261…3ddbbacked Team Spirit59c149.15$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.153661.1%22 W · 14 L+3.9wins+0.11per pick50cpaid+17.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4fff…d384backed Team Spirit61c148.05$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.742152.4%11 W · 10 L-1.0wins-0.05per pick57cpaid-10.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Heroic40c147.56$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.632,37847.2%1,123 W · 1,255 L+15.8wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-7.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xce1f…7392backed Team Spirit64c147.45$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.4167853.5%363 W · 315 L+9.3wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x98a7…b766backed Heroic45c135$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.7560251.2%308 W · 294 L+3.9wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2757…55f0backed Heroic55c134$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.712454.8%68 W · 56 L+2.7wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+9.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd4f9…f619backed Heroic15c114.83$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.8914751.7%76 W · 71 L+11.1wins+0.08per pick44cpaid-1.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x9401…38cbbacked Team Spirit61c113.87$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.224454.5%24 W · 20 L+0.2wins0.00per pick54cpaid+4.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6463…1f5cbacked Team Spirit42c106.99$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.759257.6%53 W · 39 L+6.4wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+4.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.