MLB · resolved market
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 6.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb39b98a901030166fa09d6012ff9799ea38b72286610b511ee8b387dfa6ed63d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,765
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,777
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,765 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 26c | 4,485$1,166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,319.18 | 1,912 | 53%1,014 W · 898 L | +42.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 74c | 3,863$2,854 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,854.47 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 32c | 1,282$413 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$412.7 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Under | 71c | 601.21$429 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.48 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 63c | 500$315 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 38c | 499.21$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.42 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 42c | 313.4$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.7 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 65c | 248.79$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.03 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Under | 24c | 220$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.04 | 996 | 24.6%245 W · 751 L | -70.1wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Under | 51c | 203$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.25 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked Over | 57c | 200$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114 | 22 | 13.6%3 W · 19 L | -5.3wins | -0.24per pick | 38cpaid | -71.7%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 29c | 137.18$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.39 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca20…7b68backed Under | 62c | 107.38$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.06 | 371 | 43.9%163 W · 208 L | -21.4wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 58c | 106.35$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.61 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…0258backed Over | 48c | 106.16$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.96 | 780 | 52.2%407 W · 373 L | +22.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7268…78abbacked Over | 54c | 91.8$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.24 | 200 | 40%80 W · 120 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Under | 34c | 86.12$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.65 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Under | 55c | 72.37$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.28 | 2,583 | 61.4%1,587 W · 996 L | +70.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee84…becbbacked Over | 35c | 71.43$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 218 | 52.8%115 W · 103 L | +9.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3146…d153backed Under | 71c | 70.26$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.27 | 177 | 49.7%88 W · 89 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x27cf…979abacked Under | 71c | 70.26$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.27 | 120 | 49.2%59 W · 61 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5b3…4756backed Under | 74c | 67.57$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.57 | 130 | 46.9%61 W · 69 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x389d…995fbacked Under | 71c | 64.82$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.7 | 131 | 44.3%58 W · 73 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a59…a57ebacked Under | 47c | 60$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.92 | 677 | 42.2%286 W · 391 L | -36.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -18%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0e45…39dabacked Under | 71c | 54.32$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.48 | 185 | 47.6%88 W · 97 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…504abacked Under | 73c | 51.76$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.76 | 546 | 51.3%280 W · 266 L | +29.8wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5c18…2f76backed Over | 52c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 570 | 46.8%267 W · 303 L | +14.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45d5…a7a0backed Over | 44c | 49.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.21 | 827 | 41.1%340 W · 487 L | -21.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Under | 45c | 46.49$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.44 | 2,545 | 45.9%1,168 W · 1,377 L | -73.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 51c | 45.86$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.58 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98af…b216backed Over | 40c | 40.71$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.16 | 93 | 15.1%14 W · 79 L | -9.5wins | -0.10per pick | 25cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8afa…28f0backed Over | 49c | 36$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.64 | 625 | 54.2%339 W · 286 L | +23.8wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2528…b77dbacked Under | 56c | 32$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 1,630 | 55.2%899 W · 731 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2bcf…c678backed Under | 75c | 25.85$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.48 | 246 | 54.9%135 W · 111 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 6.5this page
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Minnesota TwinsMilwaukee Brewers won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 11.5Under won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 5.5Under won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 7.5Under won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 8.5Under won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5)Minnesota Twins won
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-2.5)Minnesota Twins won
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-3.5)Minnesota Twins won
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-1.5)Milwaukee Brewers won
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-2.5)Milwaukee Brewers won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Milwaukee Brewers vs. Minnesota TwinsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.