MLB · resolved market
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd31345b0bc977d948440650b9b019ae61ec0654c5558ef933f39ba1f41a4e5c3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,461
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,390
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,461 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Under | 46c | 5,480$2,521 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,959.28 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa710…23c4backed Over | 53c | 4,401$2,325 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,325.37 | 550 | 53.1%292 W · 258 L | +20.7wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Over | 54c | 3,998$2,159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,158.8 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x15ab…97b6backed Under | 49c | 3,020$1,490 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,530.19 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +3.0wins | +0.25per pick | 50cpaid | +47.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa742…68c5backed Over | 54c | 3,000$1,620 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,620 | 95 | 60%57 W · 38 L | +5.0wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 46c | 2,000$920 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,080 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x78b0…9f1abacked Under | 47c | 1,968$925 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,043.09 | 390 | 47.4%185 W · 205 L | -11.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 46c | 1,848$845 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,003.01 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16bb…8492backed Over | 50c | 1,234$617 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$617.22 | 865 | 48.7%421 W · 444 L | -8.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf33e…0ab8backed Under | 47c | 1,000$470 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$530 | 45 | 57.8%26 W · 19 L | +5.1wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Under | 46c | 614.24$283 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$331.69 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa5b…9b61backed Over | 54c | 516.41$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$279.77 | 88 | 47.7%42 W · 46 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Over | 50c | 442$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221 | 1,851 | 53.1%982 W · 869 L | +18.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45d5…a7a0backed Under | 42c | 435.34$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$252.49 | 827 | 41.1%340 W · 487 L | -21.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 16c | 361.98$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.92 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x86ee…511fbacked Over | 55c | 356.04$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.82 | 243 | 50.6%123 W · 120 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba67…4727backed Under | 46c | 291.29$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.3 | 750 | 49.7%373 W · 377 L | +7.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Over | 20c | 272$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.56 | 996 | 24.6%245 W · 751 L | -70.1wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf5aa…4464backed Over | 52c | 270.46$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.64 | 288 | 50.3%145 W · 143 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xacbe…85d4backed Over | 54c | 249.99$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.99 | 228 | 49.1%112 W · 116 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe756…e006backed Under | 47c | 210$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.3 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc263…1e83backed Over | 54c | 207.56$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.13 | 446 | 48.7%217 W · 229 L | -10.4wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked Over | 25c | 200$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 22 | 13.6%3 W · 19 L | -5.3wins | -0.24per pick | 38cpaid | -71.7%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 58c | 198.85$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.33 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8508…c22fbacked Over | 54c | 194.44$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 1,000 | 52.4%524 W · 476 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7511…582ebacked Over | 50c | 187.2$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.6 | 701 | 54.2%380 W · 321 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a16…9d73backed Over | 54c | 179.25$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.88 | 159 | 49.7%79 W · 80 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Under | 76c | 174.42$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.87 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xab92…19e5backed Over | 54c | 91.57$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.5 | 64 | 46.9%30 W · 34 L | -5.0wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 29c | 85.7$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.51 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3d…316cbacked Under | 46c | 77$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.58 | 722 | 47.6%344 W · 378 L | -12.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a6e…9bc5backed Over | 54c | 62.57$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.79 | 75 | 58.7%44 W · 31 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb07e…0df5backed Under | 47c | 62$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.86 | 997 | 44.1%440 W · 557 L | -38.0wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef2e…8d89backed Over | 50c | 60$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 54 | 50%27 W · 27 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0c6…d4a3backed Under | 47c | 57.45$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.45 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee84…becbbacked Over | 45c | 55.73$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 218 | 52.8%115 W · 103 L | +9.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf804…8758backed Over | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.7wins | -0.30per pick | 52cpaid | -58.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0e45…39dabacked Under | 71c | 49.97$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.49 | 185 | 47.6%88 W · 97 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x70fc…ab12backed Under | 56c | 45.45$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 1,367 | 54.3%742 W · 625 L | +16.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeaf5…e0d5backed Over | 52c | 44.11$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.1 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -2.8wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xeceb…29a4backed Over | 54c | 40.65$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 39 | 43.6%17 W · 22 L | -3.2wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x09d2…26aebacked Over | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -2.5wins | -0.23per pick | 50cpaid | -52%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x51eb…6bfabacked Over | 54c | 36.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 704 | 55%387 W · 317 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ad…71acbacked Over | 50c | 33.72$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.86 | 73 | 42.5%31 W · 42 L | -8.5wins | -0.12per pick | 54cpaid | -23%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Under | 48c | 31$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.02 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7eae…8c33backed Over | 54c | 30.46$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -2.0wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Under | 47c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.9 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe581…d77abacked Over | 55c | 27.27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 76 | 50%38 W · 38 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1833…cc31backed Under | 75c | 26.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 29 | 65.5%19 W · 10 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +12%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4dea…5e23backed Under | 50c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.55 | 425 | 50.1%213 W · 212 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeaec…7855backed Over | 54c | 20.28$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.16per pick | 53cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x05b7…c24abacked Over | 52c | 20.16$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.58 | 280 | 43.2%121 W · 159 L | -23.2wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 8.5this page
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Minnesota TwinsMilwaukee Brewers won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 11.5Under won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 5.5Under won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 6.5Under won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 7.5Under won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5)Minnesota Twins won
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-2.5)Minnesota Twins won
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-3.5)Minnesota Twins won
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-1.5)Milwaukee Brewers won
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-2.5)Milwaukee Brewers won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Milwaukee Brewers vs. Minnesota TwinsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.