CS2 · resolved market
Counter-Strike: SemperFi Esports vs THUNDER dOWNUNDER (BO3) - Dfrag Wildcard LAN Playoffs
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb3bae07460a75ddf0f0923e28c072c10f3cf880c6a67109d861495f8707ca5fa
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- THUNDER dOWNUNDERof SemperFi Esports, THUNDER dOWNUNDER
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,403
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,394
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,403 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed SemperFi Esports | 38c | 1,294$496 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$495.94 | 6,480 | 42.9%2,782 W · 3,698 L | -79.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked SemperFi Esports | 42c | 915.98$385 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$384.84 | 7,925 | 50.4%3,997 W · 3,928 L | +179.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa57…2ec9backed THUNDER dOWNUNDER | 65c | 779.87$508 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$272.34 | 35 | 31.4%11 W · 24 L | -4.7wins | -0.14per pick | 45cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0d9e…456bbacked THUNDER dOWNUNDER | 49c | 614.22$301 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$313.6 | 56 | 55.4%31 W · 25 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +57.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9465…b01fbacked SemperFi Esports | 3c | 591$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.73 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.28per pick | 48cpaid | -72.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd14…2267backed SemperFi Esports | 53c | 464$247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247.04 | 5,830 | 37.8%2,203 W · 3,627 L | +79.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad41…b1c0backed SemperFi Esports | 18c | 425$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.5 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa5a8…bf60backed SemperFi Esports | 44c | 404.76$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 988 | 56.1%554 W · 434 L | +21.8wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a71…e454backed THUNDER dOWNUNDER | 51c | 393.94$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.94 | 249 | 44.6%111 W · 138 L | +6.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a73…a9c8backed THUNDER dOWNUNDER | 53c | 377$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.78 | 696 | 35.3%246 W · 450 L | -49.3wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8b04…9c22backed SemperFi Esports | 4c | 370$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe758…c5afbacked SemperFi Esports | 55c | 364.6$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d23…2008backed THUNDER dOWNUNDER | 67c | 363.81$243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.33 | 21 | 81%17 W · 4 L | +3.1wins | +0.15per pick | 66cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xad72…4f5ebacked THUNDER dOWNUNDER | 57c | 300.13$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.06 | 245 | 38.4%94 W · 151 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fbc…62a3backed SemperFi Esports | 55c | 294.19$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.41 | 244 | 57%139 W · 105 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedf7…48ffbacked SemperFi Esports | 36c | 253$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.08 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.19per pick | 33cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe3d1…4764backed THUNDER dOWNUNDER | 64c | 253$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.08 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.10per pick | 53cpaid | +47.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x123b…5398backed THUNDER dOWNUNDER | 68c | 250$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.2wins | -0.22per pick | 52cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6bfb…cd1cbacked SemperFi Esports | 33c | 189$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.37 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -3.0wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9214…a368backed THUNDER dOWNUNDER | 67c | 181$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.73 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa11d…72a8backed THUNDER dOWNUNDER | 65c | 162.58$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.9 | 104 | 42.3%44 W · 60 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x31ac…2a39backed SemperFi Esports | 46c | 162.01$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.73 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfec6…7babbacked THUNDER dOWNUNDER | 65c | 141$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.35 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc10a…46b5backed THUNDER dOWNUNDER | 79c | 140$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.8 | 81 | 66.7%54 W · 27 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b9e…0db0backed THUNDER dOWNUNDER | 64c | 130.75$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.75 | 52 | 46.2%24 W · 28 L | -4.4wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc81c…e862backed SemperFi Esports | 32c | 130$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.6 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.27per pick | 33cpaid | +93.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1771…6796backed SemperFi Esports | 66c | 128.53$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.83 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0dd…fa53backed SemperFi Esports | 35c | 127$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.45 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked SemperFi Esports | 38c | 123.89$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.46 | 5,511 | 47%2,590 W · 2,921 L | +42.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd8d…3e62backed SemperFi Esports | 32c | 120$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.4 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.18per pick | 30cpaid | -79.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8359…5944backed SemperFi Esports | 35c | 100.99$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.13 | 697 | 32%223 W · 474 L | -46.0wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x861f…a189backed SemperFi Esports | 60c | 100$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 921 | 52.6%484 W · 437 L | +16.3wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed THUNDER dOWNUNDER | 35c | 94.36$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.55 | 169 | 35.5%60 W · 109 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4eac…1344backed THUNDER dOWNUNDER | 62c | 91.71$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -49%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x29f8…ffa9backed THUNDER dOWNUNDER | 35c | 87.83$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.09 | 432 | 39.1%169 W · 263 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb046…af24backed THUNDER dOWNUNDER | 57c | 87.72$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.72 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0386…2b1abacked SemperFi Esports | 25c | 60$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 700 | 36.1%253 W · 447 L | +18.4wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1769…94efbacked THUNDER dOWNUNDER | 52c | 59.56$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.79 | 916 | 48.9%448 W · 468 L | +4.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf006…bf1ebacked THUNDER dOWNUNDER | 55c | 54.12$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.12 | 109 | 48.6%53 W · 56 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa073…a3babacked THUNDER dOWNUNDER | 79c | 53.01$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.2 | 1,117 | 68.6%766 W · 351 L | +20.3wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x155b…d7babacked THUNDER dOWNUNDER | 57c | 51.75$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 406 | 52.2%212 W · 194 L | +22.4wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x61c1…0513backed SemperFi Esports | 55c | 45.45$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 133 | 63.9%85 W · 48 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8afa…28f0backed THUNDER dOWNUNDER | 44c | 44.89$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.09 | 739 | 48.4%358 W · 381 L | +5.1wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…0258backed THUNDER dOWNUNDER | 52c | 44$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.12 | 799 | 51.7%413 W · 386 L | +25.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb27…8be8backed THUNDER dOWNUNDER | 31c | 42$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.92 | 410 | 54.6%224 W · 186 L | +29.4wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe00d…4251backed THUNDER dOWNUNDER | 62c | 40.32$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.32 | 61 | 57.4%35 W · 26 L | -5.2wins | -0.08per pick | 66cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x022d…d8cebacked THUNDER dOWNUNDER | 52c | 38.63$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.54 | 170 | 50%85 W · 85 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83c8…3b6cbacked THUNDER dOWNUNDER | 47c | 37.79$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.15 | 1,043 | 57.3%598 W · 445 L | +17.5wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24ca…5829backed SemperFi Esports | 44c | 31.87$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.95 | 333 | 52.6%175 W · 158 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe3…4c46backed SemperFi Esports | 34c | 29.55$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4f5…7a95backed THUNDER dOWNUNDER | 70c | 28.37$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.37 | 237 | 51.5%122 W · 115 L | -14.7wins | -0.06per pick | 58cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3eb3…4d75backed THUNDER dOWNUNDER | 65c | 21.83$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.64 | 50 | 50%25 W · 25 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf740…cf50backed THUNDER dOWNUNDER | 78c | 19.63$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.37 | 139 | 43.9%61 W · 78 L | -9.6wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.