MLB · resolved market
Cleveland Guardians vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb41158fd091ccfcb241e5e3ae393543b93f8c9e5d9057a79ea0776fe2201420f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,854
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,451
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,854 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 38c | 981.37$375 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$606.01 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa557…5e8abacked Under | 2c | 900$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 119 | 14.3%17 W · 102 L | +4.7wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +289.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 57c | 629.61$357 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$357.05 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ac…4ec7backed Over | 22c | 512.7$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$397.87 | 1,173 | 29%340 W · 833 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1880…a421backed Over | 42c | 476.19$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$276.19 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 58c | 465.4$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$269.93 | 678 | 49.3%334 W · 344 L | +7.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69c2…40cfbacked Over | 35c | 428.57$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$278.57 | 182 | 39.6%72 W · 110 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab30…379fbacked Under | 6c | 400$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 47 | 14.9%7 W · 40 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 64c | 310$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.3 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x661d…4dc6backed Over | 47c | 265.31$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.41 | 218 | 42.7%93 W · 125 L | -5.2wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Under | 58c | 244.18$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.62 | 1,572 | 48.3%759 W · 813 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd51b…9606backed Under | 66c | 230$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.8 | 225 | 48.4%109 W · 116 L | -5.1wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked Under | 59c | 220.37$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.14 | 1,041 | 50.1%522 W · 519 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 65c | 194$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.15 | 155 | 50.3%78 W · 77 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98d0…f14abacked Under | 60c | 150$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 199 | 51.8%103 W · 96 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dcf…4eb4backed Over | 42c | 138.24$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.18 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -4.6wins | -0.18per pick | 49cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5de7…5417backed Over | 40c | 135$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81 | 109 | 45.9%50 W · 59 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Under | 71c | 131.69$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.87 | 107 | 47.7%51 W · 56 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b5…7e80backed Under | 71c | 127$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.33 | 72 | 56.9%41 W · 31 L | +6.1wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8fb4…d080backed Over | 42c | 125.28$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.91 | 142 | 45.8%65 W · 77 L | -5.3wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0204…0e31backed Over | 41c | 122.56$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.56 | 180 | 48.3%87 W · 93 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked Over | 42c | 99.99$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.02 | 2,261 | 45.4%1,026 W · 1,235 L | +57.4wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeed8…aafdbacked Under | 59c | 81.65$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82de…1337backed Under | 56c | 64.87$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.33 | 253 | 49.4%125 W · 128 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 25c | 60$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 650 | 50.3%327 W · 323 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb7d…7862backed Over | 42c | 59.52$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.52 | 395 | 53.7%212 W · 183 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3c8…e340backed Under | 66c | 55$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.05 | 41 | 9.8%4 W · 37 L | -10.5wins | -0.26per pick | 35cpaid | -62.6%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x00d4…4c46backed Under | 66c | 55$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.05 | 99 | 39.4%39 W · 60 L | -5.3wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x36aa…a683backed Over | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 443 | 47.9%212 W · 231 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa870…df70backed Under | 42c | 47.59$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.15per pick | 45cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x99f7…1a59backed Under | 66c | 43$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.23 | 70 | 38.6%27 W · 43 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x91e0…26a0backed Under | 66c | 43$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.23 | 76 | 30.3%23 W · 53 L | -10.2wins | -0.13per pick | 44cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x917b…e433backed Under | 55c | 33.02$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.16 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a27…2fdcbacked Under | 61c | 30.23$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.44 | 116 | 49.1%57 W · 59 L | -5.7wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8482…3f7abacked Over | 37c | 30.02$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.76 | 1,062 | 49.2%523 W · 539 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Under | 71c | 27.55$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.49 | 1,269 | 47.4%602 W · 667 L | -31.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8de4…67a8backed Under | 55c | 27.19$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.95 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -1.9wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x442e…a738backed Under | 61c | 26.74$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.31 | 81 | 53.1%43 W · 38 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0828…5cfebacked Under | 55c | 26.42$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.53 | 67 | 49.3%33 W · 34 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec56…1259backed Under | 55c | 26.42$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.53 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ea8…077dbacked Under | 55c | 26.42$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.53 | 41 | 39%16 W · 25 L | -4.1wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3f5c…9e02backed Under | 55c | 26.42$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.53 | 50 | 40%20 W · 30 L | -4.8wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc2b6…d7cebacked Under | 55c | 26.42$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.53 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -2.4wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -23%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xef92…f133backed Under | 64c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.82 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -5.7wins | -0.36per pick | 54cpaid | -68.5%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xce5f…ab17backed Under | 66c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 353 | 41.1%145 W · 208 L | -16.7wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xceb7…8b33backed Under | 55c | 19.82$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.9 | 52 | 48.1%25 W · 27 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b7f…7e25backed Under | 55c | 19.82$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.9 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.8wins | +0.14per pick | 48cpaid | +43.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 58c | 19.16$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.11 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3bf3…8f91backed Under | 73c | 17.81$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -5.2wins | -0.20per pick | 62cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 7.5this page
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Seattle MarinersCleveland Guardians won
- NRFI: Cleveland Guardians vs. Seattle MarinersYes won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5)Cleveland Guardians won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.