MLB · resolved market
Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5aa5dd250a83febc249705d297e695a32876b5a8e012db2c29b650b1a842f2fe
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Cleveland Guardiansof Seattle Mariners, Cleveland Guardians
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $136,175
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $135,325
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $136,175 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc807…c12bbacked Cleveland Guardians | 59c | 100,227$59,098 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41,128.64 | 501 | 53.5%268 W · 233 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ade…f5b0backed Seattle Mariners | 41c | 36,676$15,068 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15,068.12 | 135 | 34.1%46 W · 89 L | -8.5wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x39d3…9ef0backed Seattle Mariners | 42c | 28,026$11,703 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,703.07 | 235 | 38.3%90 W · 145 L | -8.5wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x412f…30fabacked Seattle Mariners | 41c | 20,431$8,411 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,411.31 | 57 | 26.3%15 W · 42 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +221.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b6f…ce60backed Seattle Mariners | 41c | 20,382$8,357 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,356.6 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xacae…6798backed Seattle Mariners | 41c | 12,150$4,982 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,981.5 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | -3.7wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked Cleveland Guardians | 55c | 7,525$4,131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,394.18 | 1,041 | 50.1%522 W · 519 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Cleveland Guardians | 58c | 3,820$2,216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,604.35 | 465 | 47.1%219 W · 246 L | +5.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9e8…731cbacked Seattle Mariners | 41c | 2,682$1,099 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,099.43 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Cleveland Guardians | 58c | 2,031$1,178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$853.16 | 323 | 48.9%158 W · 165 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a14…d748backed Seattle Mariners | 51c | 2,000$1,020 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,020 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Cleveland Guardians | 58c | 1,900$1,102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$798 | 1,909 | 53.5%1,021 W · 888 L | +29.1wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Cleveland Guardians | 58c | 1,874$1,096 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$778.2 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbcd…7ab2backed Cleveland Guardians | 58c | 1,710$992 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$718.22 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.22per pick | 50cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf4…66bbbacked Cleveland Guardians | 58c | 1,379$800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$579.31 | 62 | 53.2%33 W · 29 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb552…94a8backed Cleveland Guardians | 58c | 1,307$758 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$548.94 | 66 | 54.5%36 W · 30 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Cleveland Guardians | 66c | 1,275$846 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$428.6 | 155 | 50.3%78 W · 77 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1455…e5cdbacked Cleveland Guardians | 58c | 1,227$712 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$515.34 | 40 | 52.5%21 W · 19 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e40…cf85backed Seattle Mariners | 34c | 1,029$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +2.6wins | +0.26per pick | 44cpaid | +53.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5919…95acbacked Cleveland Guardians | 58c | 755$438 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$317.1 | 114 | 54.4%62 W · 52 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b3…6b95backed Seattle Mariners | 39c | 649.58$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -2.3wins | -0.17per pick | 45cpaid | -32%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Seattle Mariners | 7c | 601.33$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.81 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked Seattle Mariners | 27c | 562.15$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.2 | 90 | 44.4%40 W · 50 L | +4.9wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa42c…5a6ebacked Seattle Mariners | 3c | 500$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e5…2d3abacked Seattle Mariners | 42c | 357.14$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 940 | 34.3%322 W · 618 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Seattle Mariners | 27c | 305.96$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.34 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6fbd…b8d3backed Seattle Mariners | 42c | 184.17$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.35 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | -2.6wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Seattle Mariners | 42c | 176.04$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.18 | 678 | 49.3%334 W · 344 L | +7.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x450b…11d7backed Cleveland Guardians | 58c | 172.41$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.41 | 126 | 55.6%70 W · 56 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x292e…172cbacked Cleveland Guardians | 58c | 172.41$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.41 | 100 | 56%56 W · 44 L | +4.9wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfc23…8283backed Cleveland Guardians | 58c | 171.3$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.3 | 431 | 53.6%231 W · 200 L | +10.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf879…820ebacked Cleveland Guardians | 32c | 155.7$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.7 | 63 | 47.6%30 W · 33 L | +4.7wins | +0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1294…a59fbacked Seattle Mariners | 31c | 150$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Seattle Mariners | 42c | 130.38$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.76 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ab7…0409backed Seattle Mariners | 41c | 121.58$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.85 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 33cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcba6…bb05backed Seattle Mariners | 42c | 106.97$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.09 | 210 | 44.8%94 W · 116 L | -10.4wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x14e4…eabbbacked Cleveland Guardians | 58c | 103.45$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.45 | 509 | 49.5%252 W · 257 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7634…600dbacked Seattle Mariners | 43c | 100$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 603 | 50.1%302 W · 301 L | -10.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90c5…534cbacked Seattle Mariners | 43c | 100$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 341 | 45.2%154 W · 187 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc30…c8a5backed Seattle Mariners | 43c | 93.02$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 195 | 40%78 W · 117 L | +7.8wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf137…9341backed Seattle Mariners | 43c | 85.8$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.67 | 45 | 42.2%19 W · 26 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b65…6518backed Seattle Mariners | 58c | 85$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -5.2wins | -0.19per pick | 51cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x97f7…ada9backed Seattle Mariners | 41c | 73.17$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 47 | 46.8%22 W · 25 L | -3.1wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Seattle Mariners | 36c | 68.26$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.24 | 841 | 22.7%191 W · 650 L | -81.4wins | -0.10per pick | 32cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xedf7…8f79backed Seattle Mariners | 42c | 59.52$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 399 | 48.1%192 W · 207 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8941…83d7backed Cleveland Guardians | 58c | 59$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.78 | 153 | 51.6%79 W · 74 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46d3…2c20backed Seattle Mariners | 42c | 47.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -5.1wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x70b1…73b2backed Seattle Mariners | 43c | 46.51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | -5.0wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x51eb…6bfabacked Seattle Mariners | 44c | 45.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 704 | 55%387 W · 317 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb7d…7862backed Seattle Mariners | 41c | 36.59$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 395 | 53.7%212 W · 183 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9a9…7876backed Seattle Mariners | 43c | 33.67$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.48 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9856…7014backed Cleveland Guardians | 60c | 33.29$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.32 | 29 | 72.4%21 W · 8 L | +5.1wins | +0.18per pick | 55cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0dab…dc59backed Cleveland Guardians | 58c | 24.78$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.41 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36aa…a683backed Seattle Mariners | 44c | 23.72$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.52 | 443 | 47.9%212 W · 231 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5308…3221backed Cleveland Guardians | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 403 | 52.4%211 W · 192 L | +15.9wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x50c3…ace1backed Cleveland Guardians | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 866 | 53%459 W · 407 L | +16.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c69…2b8dbacked Cleveland Guardians | 58c | 19.6$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.23 | 307 | 50.2%154 W · 153 L | -7.5wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Cleveland Guardians | 77c | 13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.99 | 650 | 50.3%327 W · 323 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5)this page
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Seattle MarinersCleveland Guardians won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 7.5Over won
- NRFI: Cleveland Guardians vs. Seattle MarinersYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.