Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Nemiga Gaming vs 1win - Game 2 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb454bc86f73cdd5e6d2036e81b9dc82b23629bf615dba8854f3c957f0837d368
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- 1winof Nemiga Gaming, 1win
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,623
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,291
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,623 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x124e…6802backed 1win | 61c | 3,000$1,830 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,170 | 130 | 68.5%89 W · 41 L | +4.9wins | +0.04per pick | 65cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7756…d00abacked Nemiga Gaming | 33c | 2,032$670 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$670.45 | 251 | 47.4%119 W · 132 L | +12.3wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x82dc…5700backed 1win | 72c | 1,486$1,072 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$413.9 | 686 | 49.7%341 W · 345 L | +9.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e1…49ddbacked Nemiga Gaming | 29c | 1,080$313 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$313.3 | 670 | 43.3%290 W · 380 L | -6.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ef…ca6bbacked Nemiga Gaming | 37c | 905.96$335 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$335.21 | 1,066 | 57%608 W · 458 L | +52.7wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9a8e…9408backed Nemiga Gaming | 4c | 799.97$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 962 | 45.5%438 W · 524 L | +22.1wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd06c…cdafbacked Nemiga Gaming | 38c | 651.35$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.94 | 1,186 | 43.2%512 W · 674 L | +42.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6ce…7a7dbacked 1win | 63c | 574.73$363 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$211.88 | 897 | 49.6%445 W · 452 L | +22.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa306…a39dbacked Nemiga Gaming | 22c | 559.19$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.95 | 105 | 61%64 W · 41 L | +7.4wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed Nemiga Gaming | 31c | 430$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.65 | 2,828 | 43.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L | -39.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31a4…7afcbacked 1win | 52c | 286.4$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.36 | 953 | 42.2%402 W · 551 L | -20.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4dde…cff5backed Nemiga Gaming | 37c | 272.22$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.72 | 336 | 44%148 W · 188 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0659…d74dbacked 1win | 63c | 269.77$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.82 | 858 | 51.3%440 W · 418 L | +30.8wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb3e…9120backed Nemiga Gaming | 30c | 217.46$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.14 | 66 | 34.8%23 W · 43 L | -5.3wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Nemiga Gaming | 30c | 198.88$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.17 | 2,378 | 47.2%1,123 W · 1,255 L | +15.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72c2…5e74backed Nemiga Gaming | 24c | 197.5$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.43 | 793 | 43.6%346 W · 447 L | +38.4wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x839f…c2cebacked Nemiga Gaming | 37c | 192.22$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.22 | 199 | 51.8%103 W · 96 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf67d…c986backed Nemiga Gaming | 50c | 191.71$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.64 | 390 | 42.1%164 W · 226 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b41…2c02backed Nemiga Gaming | 44c | 176.83$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.52 | 726 | 37.5%272 W · 454 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x11ff…4447backed Nemiga Gaming | 38c | 164.39$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.47 | 225 | 34.2%77 W · 148 L | -8.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x02a4…6854backed Nemiga Gaming | 34c | 160$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 1,797 | 55.8%1,003 W · 794 L | +37.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2924…0f31backed 1win | 78c | 120.48$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.06 | 470 | 46.6%219 W · 251 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x523b…cd5abacked 1win | 71c | 110.82$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.22 | 36 | 61.1%22 W · 14 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e8d…febfbacked Nemiga Gaming | 47c | 103.48$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.4 | 216 | 50.9%110 W · 106 L | -25.3wins | -0.12per pick | 63cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x127e…cca1backed Nemiga Gaming | 19c | 101.13$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.21 | 461 | 50.8%234 W · 227 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe3f…0fcfbacked 1win | 57c | 90.62$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.65 | 866 | 59.6%516 W · 350 L | -8.6wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fa8…d75fbacked Nemiga Gaming | 31c | 59$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.29 | 55 | 34.5%19 W · 36 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56fc…affbbacked 1win | 79c | 55.28$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.83 | 255 | 47.8%122 W · 133 L | -4.5wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb64c…393dbacked Nemiga Gaming | 37c | 52.01$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.24 | 293 | 50.2%147 W · 146 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc0…699abacked Nemiga Gaming | 23c | 47.69$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.97 | 641 | 23.4%150 W · 491 L | -18.6wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Nemiga Gaming | 26c | 38.47$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1,034 | 16.3%169 W · 865 L | -158.1wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -51%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xb3c5…f095backed 1win | 57c | 34.18$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.7 | 606 | 60.7%368 W · 238 L | +8.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa35c…a113backed Nemiga Gaming | 42c | 33$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.86 | 617 | 45.7%282 W · 335 L | -12.4wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…084fbacked 1win | 57c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.9 | 209 | 54.5%114 W · 95 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc209…7924backed Nemiga Gaming | 37c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 507 | 57.4%291 W · 216 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3e7…bf64backed 1win | 63c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.25 | 324 | 41.7%135 W · 189 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Nemiga Gaming vs 1win - Game 2 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: Nemiga Gaming vs 1win (BO3) - DreamLeague Eastern Europe Closed Qualifier PlayoffsNemiga Gaming won
- Dota 2: Nemiga Gaming vs 1win - Game 1 WinnerNemiga Gaming won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.