NHL · resolved market
Capitals vs. Canadiens
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb46bf87d836703a985ccd4f070e0bb2a19a0b3a231fe8e2f443ae5edac82e491
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Capitalsof Capitals, Canadiens
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,344
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,347
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,344 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x873c…ac48backed Canadiens | 0c | 16,000$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Canadiens | 41c | 1,818$745 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$745.44 | 1,025 | 40.8%418 W · 607 L | +15.6wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4cd4…ce48backed Capitals | 59c | 1,818$1,073 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$745.44 | 51 | 47.1%24 W · 27 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8cd…3cf2backed Canadiens | 41c | 974.76$395 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$395.02 | 36 | 41.7%15 W · 21 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d92…4b39backed Capitals | 59c | 500$295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -2.8wins | -0.10per pick | 55cpaid | -11%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Capitals | 60c | 310$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.1 | 1,037 | 55%570 W · 467 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Capitals | 60c | 300$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119 | 1,039 | 55.2%574 W · 465 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x438e…9704backed Canadiens | 70c | 269.99$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.89 | 170 | 54.7%93 W · 77 L | -5.9wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1793…51dfbacked Canadiens | 73c | 266.85$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.11 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +52.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Canadiens | 41c | 251.73$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.41 | 728 | 47.9%349 W · 379 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a64…4430backed Canadiens | 25c | 220.01$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.34 | 313 | 34.8%109 W · 204 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee00…cea1backed Canadiens | 68c | 199.48$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.65 | 448 | 48.9%219 W · 229 L | +12.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc21d…4ed8backed Capitals | 26c | 189.4$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.73 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | +3.5wins | +0.11per pick | 31cpaid | +11%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a2…6af8backed Capitals | 34c | 140$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +4.6wins | +0.29per pick | 34cpaid | +85.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xa0ef…807abacked Capitals | 37c | 133.95$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.95 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +33.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe438…9471backed Canadiens | 43c | 116.28$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f7…039abacked Canadiens | 39c | 112.43$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.85 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | -2.9wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb13d…2e90backed Canadiens | 41c | 109.94$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.98 | 840 | 51.4%432 W · 408 L | +19.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x177e…a572backed Capitals | 59c | 100$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41 | 42 | 54.8%23 W · 19 L | -3.3wins | -0.08per pick | 63cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Capitals | 22c | 98.94$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.84 | 928 | 48.5%450 W · 478 L | +17.6wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x371a…34b0backed Canadiens | 12c | 88$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.56 | 745 | 0.7%5 W · 740 L | -13.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -94.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9353…cdbebacked Capitals | 59c | 84.81$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.77 | 508 | 57.7%293 W · 215 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2686…7a67backed Capitals | 59c | 84.75$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.75 | 96 | 65.6%63 W · 33 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x796d…555fbacked Canadiens | 41c | 76.74$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.46 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.16per pick | 35cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f41…83f5backed Canadiens | 38c | 73.02$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.1 | 74 | 44.6%33 W · 41 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4f8…a3dfbacked Canadiens | 41c | 69.77$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.61 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.2wins | -0.32per pick | 46cpaid | -72%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe63c…92b8backed Canadiens | 43c | 69.76$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.12per pick | 55cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa29…e215backed Canadiens | 43c | 67.44$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 56cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x20cc…ebc0backed Capitals | 41c | 63.19$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.53 | 66 | 57.6%38 W · 28 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1738…41a1backed Capitals | 57c | 52.63$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.63 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a90…cdf5backed Capitals | 57c | 50.88$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.88 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.26per pick | 54cpaid | +52.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaf32…f308backed Capitals | 57c | 50.87$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.87 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x890c…3ba4backed Capitals | 59c | 50.85$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.85 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0039…26cfbacked Capitals | 57c | 50.06$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.53 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.29per pick | 55cpaid | +62.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1f19…aec2backed Capitals | 43c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.5 | 26 | 61.5%16 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9a…b2c6backed Capitals | 62c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b8…da98backed Canadiens | 78c | 50$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 75cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2765…7ee4backed Capitals | 25c | 50$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.5 | 56 | 33.9%19 W · 37 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf93b…bb37backed Capitals | 45c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.5 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc9e…d9f9backed Canadiens | 41c | 49$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.09 | 114 | 45.6%52 W · 62 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd919…6ea5backed Canadiens | 27c | 47.97$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.95 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfce4…7addbacked Canadiens | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7bf3…2cc7backed Capitals | 57c | 43.84$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.85 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedf5…098fbacked Capitals | 52c | 41.66$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.99 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6144…2fffbacked Capitals | 59c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.4 | 44 | 52.3%23 W · 21 L | -3.0wins | -0.07per pick | 59cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc95c…cef3backed Capitals | 58c | 40$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 193 | 47.2%91 W · 102 L | -14.9wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x61e5…d149backed Capitals | 53c | 38.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.03 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4673…d99bbacked Canadiens | 40c | 36.93$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.77 | 318 | 49.4%157 W · 161 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2226…541cbacked Capitals | 57c | 36.91$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.87 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36c8…35cebacked Capitals | 57c | 36.84$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.84 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.25per pick | 50cpaid | +64.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3250…e62dbacked Canadiens | 40c | 34.11$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.65 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x185c…dee1backed Capitals | 59c | 33.9$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.9 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4109…7e24backed Canadiens | 41c | 31.95$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.1 | 231 | 44.6%103 W · 128 L | -5.9wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4eb8…9231backed Capitals | 46c | 31.67$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.26 | 74 | 48.6%36 W · 38 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc2c3…6ec3backed Canadiens | 48c | 30.13$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.46 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 57cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6753…7340backed Canadiens | 70c | 30$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d0a…35debacked Canadiens | 47c | 29.66$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd829…3fc4backed Capitals | 72c | 27.62$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.62 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 68cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70e9…6811backed Capitals | 73c | 25.86$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.98 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.19per pick | 59cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0acb…89d4backed Capitals | 73c | 22.11$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.97 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.22per pick | 53cpaid | +44%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2502…0642backed Capitals | 60c | 17.56$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.02 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +77.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.