Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon post 50-59 times?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb4872b8ccaebdd29027958c4a845167da800693a1805f6e4e2919c266776457c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,293
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,018
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,293 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 9 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x08c4…aad3backed Yes | 26c | 1,935$510 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$510 | 61 | 27.9%17 W · 44 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc23d…b637backed Yes | 24c | 1,476$348 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$348.35 | 35 | 14.3%5 W · 30 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | +38.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf189…8e47backed No | 79c | 440.38$348 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.09 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2e…2358backed Yes | 24c | 333.4$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.02 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe25b…0f1bbacked No | 76c | 240.38$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.69 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +1.5wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | -13%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf45…d297backed Yes | 23c | 130.43$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 48 | 10.4%5 W · 43 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c0c…9d02backed Yes | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2db9…a5ebbacked Yes | 26c | 71.5$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.59 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe160…3e87backed Yes | 49c | 48.63$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.83 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon post 50-59 times?this page
- Will Elon post 100 or more times?No won
- Will Elon post 40-49 times?Yes won
- Will Elon post 60-69 times?No won
- Will Elon post 70-79 times?No won
- Will Elon post 80-89 times?No won
- Will Elon post 90-99 times?No won
- Will Elon post less than 40 times?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.