Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C on March 20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb49ffd5f6c1f649a3a9d048d550e6c84ec9f2ec35f27e62c49d9009c6c824291
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,166
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,166 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7d8d…a96cbacked Yes | 2c | 1,091$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 810 | 29.1%236 W · 574 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdeee…7c09backed Yes | 27c | 408.97$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.59 | 93 | 51.6%48 W · 45 L | +7.9wins | +0.09per pick | 43cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked Yes | 9c | 281.48$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.55 | 584 | 22.8%133 W · 451 L | -26.5wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaebd…c462backed Yes | 21c | 240.77$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.66 | 82 | 20.7%17 W · 65 L | +3.9wins | +0.05per pick | 16cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x672f…13ccbacked No | 80c | 240.44$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.93 | 330 | 58.8%194 W · 136 L | +10.8wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 12c | 209$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 10c | 195.61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.84 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 75c | 188.81$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.87 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 17c | 165.56$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.59 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed Yes | 14c | 162.93$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.3 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70ab…c998backed Yes | 18c | 156.55$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.97 | 61 | 37.7%23 W · 38 L | +5.9wins | +0.10per pick | 28cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x59f7…b535backed No | 78c | 152.94$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.86 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2099…3024backed Yes | 15c | 138.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.16 | 336 | 20.2%68 W · 268 L | +24.9wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3b1a…4221backed No | 77c | 136$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.42 | 144 | 42.4%61 W · 83 L | -11.7wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Yes | 8c | 132.82$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.83 | 249 | 32.9%82 W · 167 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 19c | 132.52$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.68 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 27c | 123.72$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.92 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae8f…c820backed Yes | 26c | 120.35$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.31 | 635 | 38.1%242 W · 393 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46b3…d3debacked Yes | 13c | 112.14$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.05 | 244 | 14.3%35 W · 209 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43b1…aba6backed Yes | 23c | 107.98$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 774 | 28.6%221 W · 553 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9466…4d38backed Yes | 29c | 104.3$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.23 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +2.0wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd8f4…c82cbacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 78 | 60.3%47 W · 31 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3b4…48b2backed Yes | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.95 | 206 | 31.6%65 W · 141 L | -23.6wins | -0.11per pick | 43cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf9c2…d167backed Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.28 | 54 | 25.9%14 W · 40 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf306…2155backed Yes | 26c | 99.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 57 | 33.3%19 W · 38 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0035…f917backed Yes | 29c | 90.14$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.18 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.17per pick | 39cpaid | +38.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5052…564cbacked Yes | 23c | 87.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98d9…2c8cbacked No | 74c | 81.56$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.56 | 576 | 59%340 W · 236 L | -17.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b09…aca6backed Yes | 27c | 80$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.88 | 262 | 36.6%96 W · 166 L | +9.5wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 33c | 80$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.38 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8638…d0cebacked Yes | 23c | 76.88$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.38 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +35.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6548…9108backed No | 68c | 70$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.19 | 49 | 63.3%31 W · 18 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ed7…bb28backed Yes | 27c | 70$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 128 | 28.1%36 W · 92 L | +8.5wins | +0.07per pick | 22cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 21c | 62.04$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.21 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb87…e08ebacked Yes | 22c | 60.18$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.24 | 61 | 19.7%12 W · 49 L | -3.4wins | -0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4156…997ebacked Yes | 23c | 60$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.06 | 86 | 36%31 W · 55 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb9ff…5e00backed Yes | 26c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 42 | 33.3%14 W · 28 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc498…8ba5backed Yes | 37c | 48.83$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 424 | 38.9%165 W · 259 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f43…a1dfbacked Yes | 23c | 46$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.39 | 70 | 37.1%26 W · 44 L | +4.5wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 75c | 45.02$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.05 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked Yes | 23c | 42.58$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca41…8486backed No | 79c | 42.03$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.03 | 79 | 39.2%31 W · 48 L | +3.6wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb608…881ebacked Yes | 28c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 188 | 42.6%80 W · 108 L | +7.4wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0461…fcbcbacked No | 70c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.15 | 724 | 66.2%479 W · 245 L | +33.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe233…c70bbacked No | 76c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.32 | 549 | 66.7%366 W · 183 L | -27.1wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2dca…4bc5backed No | 71c | 28.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.25 | 32 | 62.5%20 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc02…504dbacked No | 76c | 26.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.33 | 63 | 65.1%41 W · 22 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x71af…6b3dbacked No | 78c | 25.7$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.7 | 35 | 60%21 W · 14 L | +2.8wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7f90…b54abacked No | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.26 | 84 | 59.5%50 W · 34 L | +4.9wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x500e…7c9abacked No | 78c | 17$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.67 | 63 | 57.1%36 W · 27 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 75c | 16.63$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.14 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d9c…1450backed No | 80c | 13.42$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.7 | 142 | 51.4%73 W · 69 L | -21.9wins | -0.15per pick | 67cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C on March 20?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 10°C on March 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 11°C on March 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 12°C on March 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 14°C on March 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 15°C on March 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 16°C on March 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 17°C on March 20?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C or higher on March 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 9°C or below on March 20?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.