Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 16°C on March 20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7c39be47ece361052c22096026cca4d5360c73651530ecb918e9abce1ffef3ed
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,138
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,138 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0b8b…63c7backed Yes | 10c | 954.1$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.12 | 86 | 9.3%8 W · 78 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -41%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b28…d021backed Yes | 5c | 858.89$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.56 | 287 | 18.5%53 W · 234 L | +15.9wins | +0.06per pick | 13cpaid | +113.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 10c | 664.31$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.27 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 9c | 597.67$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.43 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x66ae…5f97backed Yes | 3c | 520.27$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.41 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7fc0…8e67backed Yes | 20c | 500$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc448…085ebacked Yes | 5c | 285$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 219 | 19.6%43 W · 176 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -35%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ac5…154cbacked Yes | 12c | 267.84$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.29 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 7c | 262.3$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.26 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8eea…e285backed Yes | 5c | 257.69$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.51 | 410 | 46.8%192 W · 218 L | +57.4wins | +0.14per pick | 33cpaid | +58.9%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…7926backed Yes | 10c | 250$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 423 | 15.4%65 W · 358 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Yes | 4c | 247.49$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.37 | 249 | 32.9%82 W · 167 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 29c | 216.06$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.7 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 14c | 211.15$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.06 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 5c | 209$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.17 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43b1…aba6backed Yes | 21c | 180.05$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.99 | 774 | 28.6%221 W · 553 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee5e…7f1cbacked Yes | 11c | 178.47$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.68 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 24cpaid | -60.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 8c | 167.16$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.08 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xbc7e…637fbacked Yes | 13c | 156.64$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb6af…4219backed Yes | 32c | 155.82$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 506 | 48.8%247 W · 259 L | +25.1wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x75ea…1616backed Yes | 25c | 148.29$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.98 | 43 | 41.9%18 W · 25 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 74c | 141.89$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.4 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x682c…87a9backed Yes | 9c | 126.15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.19 | 464 | 23.5%109 W · 355 L | +20.7wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 79c | 124.87$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.3 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 16c | 123.13$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.39 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca41…8486backed Yes | 17c | 116.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 79 | 39.2%31 W · 48 L | +3.6wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e34…6c94backed No | 80c | 113.9$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.13 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +37.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a5a…77e5backed Yes | 10c | 102.49$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 97 | 24.7%24 W · 73 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6372…4a25backed No | 74c | 101.11$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.38 | 410 | 70.5%289 W · 121 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe21…f884backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 30 | 26.7%8 W · 22 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8bc4…de5abacked Yes | 20c | 99.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.88 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x744b…8d31backed Yes | 17c | 98.51$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 79c | 97.06$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.28 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3085…7568backed Yes | 19c | 97$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.43 | 234 | 7.3%17 W · 217 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 7cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ea2…e97fbacked Yes | 12c | 93.15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 350 | 18%63 W · 287 L | +11.8wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 78c | 89.23$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 19c | 84.33$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked Yes | 15c | 82.4$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb9…9481backed Yes | 25c | 81.49$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.97 | 40 | 35%14 W · 26 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd6c…1e6dbacked Yes | 30c | 79.72$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.09 | 327 | 38.2%125 W · 202 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2bb8…1371backed Yes | 19c | 74$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.06 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf674…8564backed Yes | 21c | 70$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 162 | 34%55 W · 107 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f3c…d85dbacked Yes | 17c | 68.09$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.63 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0461…fcbcbacked Yes | 16c | 65$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 724 | 66.2%479 W · 245 L | +33.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbdda…310cbacked Yes | 17c | 63.54$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.04 | 67 | 37.3%25 W · 42 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc17e…906abacked Yes | 20c | 57$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.27 | 540 | 43.9%237 W · 303 L | +11.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x766e…75f6backed Yes | 20c | 51.47$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.29 | 165 | 18.2%30 W · 135 L | -4.1wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd271…37e0backed No | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 310 | 29.7%92 W · 218 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb9ff…5e00backed Yes | 23c | 49.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 42 | 33.3%14 W · 28 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdedb…5e54backed Yes | 27c | 49.44$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.59 | 183 | 51.4%94 W · 89 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4bcb…634fbacked Yes | 34c | 44.12$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 215 | 47.4%102 W · 113 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb822…1422backed No | 79c | 41.57$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.87 | 29 | 69%20 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 65cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc980…4e72backed No | 71c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.56 | 51 | 51%26 W · 25 L | -6.1wins | -0.12per pick | 63cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x12b2…74b8backed No | 66c | 37.59$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.59 | 89 | 68.5%61 W · 28 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6548…9108backed No | 68c | 36.1$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.69 | 49 | 63.3%31 W · 18 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x148f…2f09backed Yes | 32c | 36$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.52 | 71 | 40.8%29 W · 42 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8506…2a45backed Yes | 31c | 32.26$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5bcd…cf4bbacked No | 71c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.7 | 360 | 57.5%207 W · 153 L | +21.9wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 78c | 28.04$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.15 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 63c | 21.43$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.87 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0da…4162backed No | 80c | 17.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.6 | 149 | 53.7%80 W · 69 L | +9.2wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x64bd…82cfbacked No | 68c | 17$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.44 | 187 | 61%114 W · 73 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe76…4986backed No | 77c | 15.58$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.58 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x337d…6c88backed No | 77c | 14.29$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.29 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x78c7…d4cdbacked No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +1.6wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +27.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 16°C on March 20?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 10°C on March 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 11°C on March 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 12°C on March 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 14°C on March 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 15°C on March 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 17°C on March 20?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C on March 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C or higher on March 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 9°C or below on March 20?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.