South American Leagues · resolved market
AA Estudiantes vs. CA San Lorenzo de Almagro: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb4b2d22ffd40d9fba3eff6dda14fd3f17c1b22039fc1af1a76e39cbaa3f31a6d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,512
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,033
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,512 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 66c | 8,271$5,436 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,835.69 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Over | 20c | 6,083$1,222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,221.71 | 2,281 | 34.3%782 W · 1,499 L | -30.5wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24ae…d35bbacked Over | 12c | 3,661$442 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$441.83 | 50 | 42%21 W · 29 L | -3.3wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 37c | 3,355$1,228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,228.05 | 1,290 | 42.8%552 W · 738 L | -2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c99…8b23backed Over | 48c | 1,042$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb56d…c629backed Over | 33c | 227.27$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ca3…9613backed Under | 80c | 219.75$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.75 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | -2.5wins | -0.13per pick | 68cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9028…8608backed Under | 68c | 193.74$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.57 | 601 | 56.2%338 W · 263 L | +10.4wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Under | 68c | 193.74$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.57 | 951 | 55.8%531 W · 420 L | +31.5wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3654…1b78backed Under | 68c | 162$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.22 | 412 | 62.1%256 W · 156 L | +13.7wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Under | 67c | 117.38$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.61 | 630 | 61.3%386 W · 244 L | +22.3wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfd1…2647backed Over | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 52 | 36.5%19 W · 33 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae3b…e06ebacked Over | 50c | 98.88$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.39 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Over | 19c | 71.4$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.57 | 1,253 | 56.2%704 W · 549 L | +73.3wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x82fb…0b6ebacked Under | 47c | 63.83$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.83 | 91 | 58.2%53 W · 38 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Over | 25c | 55$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.75 | 852 | 20.7%176 W · 676 L | -85.2wins | -0.10per pick | 31cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd220…e303backed Over | 53c | 50.94$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.8wins | +0.20per pick | 35cpaid | +75.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf497…5ce0backed Over | 53c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 449 | 39.2%176 W · 273 L | -7.4wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffac…d469backed Over | 36c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.1 | 100 | 55%55 W · 45 L | +5.6wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x962e…1d75backed Under | 67c | 43.2$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.29 | 49 | 73.5%36 W · 13 L | +6.8wins | +0.14per pick | 60cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed Under | 46c | 37.04$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 232 | 53%123 W · 109 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2827…4ee7backed Over | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -1.7wins | -0.10per pick | 37cpaid | -23%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0ac5…f963backed Over | 52c | 34.31$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.84 | 160 | 50.6%81 W · 79 L | +7.3wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x37b0…799fbacked Under | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 150 | 57.3%86 W · 64 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ed3…274cbacked Under | 58c | 29.97$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.51 | 90 | 56.7%51 W · 39 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdcbb…07d9backed Under | 65c | 23.81$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 142 | 64.1%91 W · 51 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Under | 47c | 21.95$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.63 | 2,335 | 51.5%1,202 W · 1,133 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Under | 48c | 21.81$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.34 | 668 | 37.1%248 W · 420 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0617…08d9backed Under | 66c | 15.19$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.19 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- AA Estudiantes vs. CA San Lorenzo de Almagro: O/U 1.5this page
- AA Estudiantes vs. CA San Lorenzo de Almagro: 1st Half O/U 0.5Under won
- AA Estudiantes vs. CA San Lorenzo de Almagro: 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
- AA Estudiantes vs. CA San Lorenzo de Almagro: O/U 0.5Under won
- AA Estudiantes vs. CA San Lorenzo de Almagro: O/U 2.5Under won
- AA Estudiantes vs. CA San Lorenzo de Almagro: O/U 3.5Under won
- Spread: AA Estudiantes (-1.5)CA San Lorenzo de Almagro won
- Spread: CA San Lorenzo de Almagro (-1.5)AA Estudiantes won
- Spread: CA San Lorenzo de Almagro (-2.5)AA Estudiantes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.