WNBA · resolved market
Lynx vs Mercury
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb4d7d69ca0da526fc8a18a768b32ca155e4da0392c5dbb6bb7d73ab3c773d523
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Lynxof Lynx, Mercury
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- WNBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,887
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,357
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,887 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in WNBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in WNBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6e82…752cbacked Lynx | 70c | 7,935$5,562 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,373.23 | 117 | 54.7%64 W · 53 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +11%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24df…e8b2backed Mercury | 30c | 7,439$2,230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,230.11 | 95 | 37.9%36 W · 59 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd44c…ab91backed Mercury | 56c | 3,863$2,153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,152.91 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Mercury | 64c | 2,637$1,691 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,691.03 | 191 | 42.4%81 W · 110 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x76c8…ba09backed Mercury | 62c | 1,416$874 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$873.86 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Lynx | 62c | 851.52$532 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$319.52 | 175 | 41.1%72 W · 103 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Mercury | 41c | 589$241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$241.49 | 214 | 40.7%87 W · 127 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaeb5…58e2backed Lynx | 59c | 500$295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205 | 128 | 40.6%52 W · 76 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf520…0637backed Mercury | 47c | 474.06$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.51 | 128 | 57.8%74 W · 54 L | +11.2wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xad18…0b4fbacked Mercury | 44c | 443.5$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.04 | 79 | 29.1%23 W · 56 L | -8.4wins | -0.11per pick | 40cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Lynx | 59c | 412.65$243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.19 | 851 | 58.4%497 W · 354 L | +70.2wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1a90…8218backed Lynx | 50c | 334.26$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.13 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked Mercury | 31c | 256$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.64 | 68 | 50%34 W · 34 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Mercury | 41c | 243.9$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 234 | 31.6%74 W · 160 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Mercury | 41c | 243.9$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 272 | 32.7%89 W · 183 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9a9…0952backed Mercury | 22c | 232.46$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 82 | 12.2%10 W · 72 L | -10.5wins | -0.13per pick | 25cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1781…a0ecbacked Lynx | 67c | 158$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.66 | 47 | 42.6%20 W · 27 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Lynx | 51c | 144.93$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.08 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Lynx | 66c | 112.3$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.55 | 49 | 59.2%29 W · 20 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +17%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46a6…8c21backed Mercury | 34c | 100$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51e5…e26cbacked Mercury | 71c | 91.48$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.95 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -3.4wins | -0.21per pick | 53cpaid | -36%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc376…a8e7backed Lynx | 52c | 78.14$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.24 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +91.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed Mercury | 31c | 64$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.66 | 51 | 47.1%24 W · 27 L | -3.6wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5179…2b29backed Mercury | 31c | 64$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.66 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b1e…e465backed Lynx | 48c | 62.5$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.5 | 28 | 78.6%22 W · 6 L | +6.3wins | +0.23per pick | 56cpaid | +62.2%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x934f…5bd8backed Mercury | 42c | 58.82$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.7 | 37 | 54.1%20 W · 17 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…e834backed Lynx | 52c | 57.69$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.69 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | +2.0wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Mercury | 33c | 47.52$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.68 | 78 | 51.3%40 W · 38 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51f7…ae1fbacked Lynx | 32c | 38.23$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.16 | 39 | 61.5%24 W · 15 L | +6.1wins | +0.16per pick | 46cpaid | +47.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1268…94e0backed Mercury | 69c | 27.29$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.83 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.24per pick | 53cpaid | -56.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in WNBA and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.