CS2 · resolved market
Map Handicap: AST (-1.5) vs MIBR (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb4ef9a94acb3e7b8a12b8f7fe9e979dbbe1a4e94ce131d6d9f8f424cb8440fa4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Astralisof Astralis, MIBR
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,109
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,919
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,109 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb7f5…c669backed MIBR | 52c | 3,934$2,046 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,045.72 | 670 | 41.8%280 W · 390 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b39…3234backed Astralis | 48c | 3,028$1,453 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,574.3 | 313 | 45%141 W · 172 L | -9.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8c…65ddbacked MIBR | 53c | 2,285$1,211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,211.26 | 844 | 54.3%458 W · 386 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x098b…1fa5backed Astralis | 47c | 1,562$734 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$828.69 | 124 | 41.1%51 W · 73 L | -4.0wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd589…27c2backed Astralis | 47c | 1,000$470 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$530 | 87 | 51.7%45 W · 42 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0659…d74dbacked MIBR | 46c | 999.99$460 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$460 | 980 | 52.4%514 W · 466 L | +26.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec7b…917ebacked Astralis | 53c | 869.28$462 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$407.64 | 277 | 40.8%113 W · 164 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf171…85febacked Astralis | 47c | 408.95$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.27 | 73 | 50.7%37 W · 36 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e9a…a9a8backed MIBR | 53c | 396.33$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.06 | 44 | 59.1%26 W · 18 L | +2.5wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd14…2267backed Astralis | 54c | 315.13$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.96 | 5,830 | 37.8%2,203 W · 3,627 L | +79.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b0c…d43abacked MIBR | 52c | 225.76$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.92 | 464 | 47.6%221 W · 243 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4dd…4f27backed MIBR | 50c | 210$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 509 | 47%239 W · 270 L | +11.3wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xace6…5556backed Astralis | 49c | 200$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102 | 676 | 51.8%350 W · 326 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f89…e85bbacked Astralis | 70c | 199.99$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +2.2wins | +0.22per pick | 58cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed MIBR | 33c | 195$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.35 | 2,434 | 44.6%1,085 W · 1,349 L | -64.0wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd146…b54abacked Astralis | 48c | 139.89$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.74 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +2.0wins | +0.22per pick | 45cpaid | +52.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb337…5589backed Astralis | 47c | 130$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.9 | 110 | 50.9%56 W · 54 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x399c…6191backed Astralis | 48c | 121.1$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.97 | 169 | 65.1%110 W · 59 L | +6.5wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4177…a2b4backed Astralis | 48c | 119.08$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.92 | 1,248 | 41.3%516 W · 732 L | +5.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x54fd…c606backed Astralis | 57c | 117.54$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.48 | 76 | 51.3%39 W · 37 L | +4.3wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x675c…4341backed Astralis | 48c | 100.92$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.48 | 187 | 48.1%90 W · 97 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf836…e7b5backed MIBR | 46c | 100$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 244 | 51.2%125 W · 119 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x021a…d3aebacked MIBR | 51c | 83.28$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.47 | 250 | 42.4%106 W · 144 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf13…ed3dbacked MIBR | 30c | 78.46$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.54 | 86 | 33.7%29 W · 57 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0c…51dbbacked MIBR | 53c | 73.27$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.83 | 401 | 48.4%194 W · 207 L | -14.5wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x02f6…841abacked Astralis | 48c | 70.64$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.73 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e1b…ecafbacked MIBR | 38c | 46.02$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.49 | 2,328 | 51.1%1,189 W · 1,139 L | +92.3wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x47e1…c2babacked Astralis | 49c | 39.68$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.4 | 471 | 46.7%220 W · 251 L | +14.5wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7645…3117backed Astralis | 47c | 34.86$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.48 | 716 | 45.9%329 W · 387 L | -3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea89…476abacked Astralis | 48c | 34.31$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.84 | 122 | 48.4%59 W · 63 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd454…b47fbacked MIBR | 50c | 21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 39 | 59%23 W · 16 L | +4.2wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc539…5ec2backed Astralis | 50c | 20.37$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.19 | 96 | 55.2%53 W · 43 L | +4.8wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a3a…f788backed MIBR | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 163 | 38.7%63 W · 100 L | -13.8wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe245…3bc8backed MIBR | 54c | 18.6$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.04 | 217 | 56.7%123 W · 94 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52cd…85fbbacked Astralis | 64c | 16.43$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.92 | 365 | 41.9%153 W · 212 L | -9.9wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Map Handicap: AST (-1.5) vs MIBR (+1.5)this page
- Counter-Strike: Astralis vs MIBR (BO3) - PGL Bucharest Group StageAstralis won
- Counter-Strike: Astralis vs MIBR - Map 1 WinnerAstralis won
- Counter-Strike: Astralis vs MIBR - Map 2 WinnerAstralis won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.