Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 34°C on May 20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb4ffe6b518e5c787ebbdd01a5fe575873af83afdc21f827c4cf41a6b9f2be787
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,831
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,853
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,831 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 67c | 171.85$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.09 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 22c | 160.77$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.71 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 28c | 136.38$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.44 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x8d09…143fbacked Yes | 80c | 125.86$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.72 | 288 | 29.5%85 W · 203 L | +32.9wins | +0.11per pick | 18cpaid | +101.6%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 10c | 119.51$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.28 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xbea2…2d33backed No | 46c | 110$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.76 | 65 | 61.5%40 W · 25 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 60c | 96.59$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.87 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb69…06a9backed Yes | 62c | 80.26$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.26 | 142 | 52.1%74 W · 68 L | +8.1wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 22c | 73.13$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.23 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18ae…314cbacked Yes | 14c | 72.46$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.45 | 1,211 | 29.8%361 W · 850 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebb1…e7afbacked Yes | 29c | 70.59$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.93 | 575 | 45%259 W · 316 L | +26.6wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf967…1adfbacked No | 77c | 65.36$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.06 | 312 | 62.5%195 W · 117 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebda…75a9backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 217 | 22.6%49 W · 168 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 29c | 48.12$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.16 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ce…90a5backed Yes | 67c | 41.34$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.56 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +1.8wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5266…aac8backed No | 71c | 40$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.2 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.27per pick | 77cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 80c | 35$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 74c | 33.41$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.86 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9337…72c0backed No | 60c | 30.79$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.36 | 77 | 49.4%38 W · 39 L | -10.8wins | -0.14per pick | 63cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x276d…ea8fbacked No | 74c | 27.19$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 86 | 50%43 W · 43 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85d2…7479backed Yes | 39c | 26.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.28 | 532 | 58.6%312 W · 220 L | +45.1wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked No | 51c | 26.46$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.44 | 926 | 2.5%23 W · 903 L | -379.9wins | -0.41per pick | 44cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 6-0.40 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 75c | 26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82ed…4432backed No | 70c | 25.89$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.06 | 27 | 18.5%5 W · 22 L | -4.2wins | -0.15per pick | 34cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…0379backed No | 70c | 25$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.45 | 548 | 57.5%315 W · 233 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 24.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebf0…2330backed Yes | 57c | 22.41$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.71 | 410 | 51.7%212 W · 198 L | +24.9wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x547b…d0babacked Yes | 59c | 21.74$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.92 | 106 | 53.8%57 W · 49 L | +12.0wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 54c | 21.25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.83 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd879…7bc3backed Yes | 50c | 20.11$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.11 | 44 | 52.3%23 W · 21 L | +7.0wins | +0.16per pick | 36cpaid | +62.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6b98…925ebacked No | 79c | 18$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.22 | 138 | 42.8%59 W · 79 L | +11.9wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +164.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbf02…ee21backed No | 72c | 17.71$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.75 | 35 | 31.4%11 W · 24 L | -2.8wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8cd6…092abacked No | 68c | 14.81$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.07 | 247 | 36%89 W · 158 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 34°C on May 20?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on May 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on May 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on May 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on May 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 33°C on May 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 35°C or higher on May 20?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.