World Politics · resolved market
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 26°C on June 26?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb51188ff947fa902d553dc4a9aa49695a64205d7d73cab0b3a3b79c124db0cb1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,786
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,054
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,786 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6ae0…7483backed Yes | 39c | 539.45$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.18 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9be9…7017backed Yes | 47c | 174.68$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.71 | 53 | 35.8%19 W · 34 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x759d…cc80backed Yes | 51c | 160$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.6 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6122…7b8fbacked No | 60c | 150$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 66c | 126.19$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.96 | 528 | 50.8%268 W · 260 L | +20.9wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 46c | 121.79$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.42 | 323 | 54.2%175 W · 148 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 38c | 120$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.4 | 311 | 52.4%163 W · 148 L | -12.4wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x13de…fd91backed Yes | 49c | 100$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 47 | 53.2%25 W · 22 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 32c | 98.77$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.97 | 327 | 48.6%159 W · 168 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 23c | 95.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.08 | 394 | 14%55 W · 339 L | -71.9wins | -0.18per pick | 32cpaid | -73.1%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed Yes | 21c | 70.91$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 162 | 54.3%88 W · 74 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc2f2…0ff7backed Yes | 22c | 70.48$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.51 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | +1,150%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed Yes | 26c | 69.53$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.83 | 150 | 56.7%85 W · 65 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc1…a3bbbacked No | 62c | 61.74$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.42 | 44 | 36.4%16 W · 28 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 33c | 57.72$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.01 | 230 | 44.8%103 W · 127 L | +11.8wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed Yes | 39c | 55$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.34 | 168 | 50.6%85 W · 83 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 39c | 42$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.62 | 111 | 61.3%68 W · 43 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b72…42b9backed Yes | 36c | 41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.76 | 99 | 36.4%36 W · 63 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19d2…0868backed Yes | 34c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed No | 61c | 35.51$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.85 | 89 | 59.6%53 W · 36 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 74c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.83 | 360 | 55.3%199 W · 161 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 64c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 200 | 65%130 W · 70 L | +12.7wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 34c | 30$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.8 | 399 | 52.4%209 W · 190 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5edc…bbadbacked No | 49c | 26.32$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.41 | 88 | 54.5%48 W · 40 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a92…35bcbacked Yes | 53c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.25 | 63 | 46%29 W · 34 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed Yes | 59c | 24.17$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.31 | 160 | 51.9%83 W · 77 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb23b…503fbacked Yes | 66c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5579…2db1backed Yes | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee02…ce88backed No | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 223 | 55.6%124 W · 99 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x00fe…52e2backed No | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 144 | 54.2%78 W · 66 L | -9.8wins | -0.07per pick | 61cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc196…4af6backed No | 65c | 17$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.95 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 26°C on June 26?this page
- Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 24°C or below on June 26?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 25°C on June 26?Yes won
- Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 26?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.