NHL · resolved market
Spread: Capitals (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb5226c9e5fb690d0b0555fc7dcff9abaf700f3635df493c88d65c6ef1c85be60
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Canadiensof Capitals, Canadiens
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,467
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,727
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,467 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x45d3…8478backed Capitals | 38c | 12,800$4,864 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,864 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa85c…54b5backed Canadiens | 62c | 8,100$5,022 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,078 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.25per pick | 55cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa5e2…ab89backed Canadiens | 62c | 4,700$2,914 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,786 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb48…b3a8backed Capitals | 38c | 950$361 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$361 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Canadiens | 61c | 946.15$577 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$369 | 1,679 | 54.4%914 W · 765 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb552…94a8backed Capitals | 35c | 852$298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$298.2 | 619 | 53.8%333 W · 286 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed2c…9597backed Canadiens | 65c | 794.34$516 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$278.02 | 333 | 45.6%152 W · 181 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x889c…e375backed Capitals | 39c | 641.03$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 295 | 51.9%153 W · 142 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c58…e330backed Capitals | 9c | 559.45$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.5 | 422 | 54.3%229 W · 193 L | +18.3wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…d0e5backed Canadiens | 65c | 442.33$288 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.82 | 976 | 51.6%504 W · 472 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8436…e0fcbacked Canadiens | 62c | 400$248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe551…1925backed Canadiens | 62c | 330$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90c5…534cbacked Capitals | 39c | 300$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117 | 541 | 32.7%177 W · 364 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1322…d9c9backed Canadiens | 62c | 220$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf67…fc18backed Capitals | 34c | 100$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 125 | 45.6%57 W · 68 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3da1…c13bbacked Capitals | 36c | 99.99$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 366 | 48.9%179 W · 187 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa07…2125backed Canadiens | 64c | 96.12$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.6 | 1,070 | 49.9%534 W · 536 L | +22.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30ad…6a69backed Canadiens | 64c | 78.13$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.13 | 231 | 58%134 W · 97 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28ad…0614backed Capitals | 15c | 74.18$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.14 | 41 | 17.1%7 W · 34 L | -5.0wins | -0.12per pick | 29cpaid | -61.8%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Capitals | 36c | 63.98$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.18 | 479 | 44.7%214 W · 265 L | -25.8wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1413…4bddbacked Canadiens | 65c | 53.85$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.85 | 138 | 60.9%84 W · 54 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x966d…eaa5backed Canadiens | 63c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.5 | 122 | 54.1%66 W · 56 L | -4.8wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Canadiens | 66c | 33.64$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.44 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c74…e4debacked Canadiens | 64c | 16.48$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.93 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Capitals (-1.5)this page
- Canadiens vs. CapitalsCapitals won
- Canadiens vs. Capitals: O/U 5.5Under won
- Canadiens vs. Capitals: O/U 6.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.