NHL · resolved market
Canadiens vs. Capitals: O/U 6.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x57395e2c1cc1d292e585e9337e24422316afd0489eccbb82cec06dae302c0645
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,482
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,544
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,482 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Over | 47c | 572$269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$269.18 | 1,948 | 49.4%962 W · 986 L | +24.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda75…bbf9backed Under | 57c | 350.88$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.88 | 206 | 55.3%114 W · 92 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Under | 52c | 300$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144 | 561 | 52%292 W · 269 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4103…9b9ebacked Over | 48c | 300$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144 | 288 | 42%121 W · 167 L | -12.4wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Under | 53c | 255.32$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120 | 1,143 | 50.8%581 W · 562 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Over | 45c | 244.44$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 1,093 | 51.8%566 W · 527 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb875…68a8backed Under | 52c | 196.67$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.4 | 246 | 54.5%134 W · 112 L | +9.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1787…c311backed Under | 54c | 142.59$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.59 | 696 | 53.4%372 W · 324 L | -16.8wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…d0e5backed Over | 46c | 108.59$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.95 | 976 | 51.6%504 W · 472 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7669…f58cbacked Over | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 83 | 68.7%57 W · 26 L | +12.3wins | +0.15per pick | 54cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 44c | 99.61$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.78 | 2,894 | 51.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Under | 54c | 62.19$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.61 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x05d3…c06abacked Over | 47c | 55.32$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 305 | 49.2%150 W · 155 L | -14.1wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x46a0…f721backed Over | 47c | 51.32$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 86 | 46.5%40 W · 46 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Over | 43c | 43.1$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.7 | 1,679 | 54.4%914 W · 765 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5316…1d07backed Under | 53c | 39.32$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.48 | 204 | 44.6%91 W · 113 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Over | 46c | 31.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.54 | 786 | 51.8%407 W · 379 L | -16.6wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Under | 53c | 28.15$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.15 | 479 | 44.7%214 W · 265 L | -25.8wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 47c | 23.02$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.82 | 2,664 | 51.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa00f…8e56backed Under | 53c | 21$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.87 | 490 | 45.3%222 W · 268 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1285…2d0fbacked Under | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Canadiens vs. Capitals: O/U 6.5this page
- Canadiens vs. CapitalsCapitals won
- Canadiens vs. Capitals: O/U 5.5Under won
- Spread: Capitals (-1.5)Canadiens won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.